US Data Response International Trade (May) Even though the trade deficit widened in May, to a level last seen just after the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, it still looks as though net trade made a decent positive contribution to... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Don't fret over expected downward revisions to home sales The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for a sustained rebound in growth dimming Following 3.9% annualised growth in the first quarter, our latest calculations point to a substantial slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth, to 1.2%. Although we anticipate a partial rebound in the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) June's employment report doesn't have a single redeeming feature. It's awful from start to finish. Non-farm payrolls increased by only 18,000 last month, down from a similarly muted 25,000 gain the... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Recent employment gains have been respectable, including the 28,400 jobs added in June. The thorny issue, however, is that average hours worked are still well below normal, reflecting the sub-par... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US demand likely to remain sluggish Today's weak employment report should go some way towards dashing the renewed optimism about the US economy which, combined with reduced fears of an imminent Greek default, had propped up commodity... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) It seems very unlikely that the recent easing in the rate at which house prices are falling can develop into sustained and significant price gains at a time when mortgage demand is still in the gutter... 7th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower loan limits won't be a disaster The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US external position not such a big risk to the dollar Although the US is running a budget deficit equal to 9% of GDP and a current account deficit of 3% of GDP, its net external liabilities at 17% of GDP are not actually that large. Last year, they even... 5th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in June, to 55.3 from 53.5 in May, will ease fears that the economy is heading towards a double dip recession. But more generally, the clear slowdown... 2nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic's house price data for May provide further evidence that the five-year long decline in prices may be drawing to a close. We remain concerned that prices may yet slip a little further. Either... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Canada's monthly real GDP was unchanged in April, held back by a 6.9% m/m drop in motor vehicle production. Growth should pick up again in the next few months, however, as the supply disruptions that... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US stock market rally unlikely to last The S&P 500 closed above 1,300 yesterday for the first time since early June and is now about 4% higher than its level at the beginning of the year. There are plenty of optimists who expect the stock... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Slowdown sustained Our econometric model suggests that the discouraging 54,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in May was followed by a slightly less disappointing 80,000 gain in June. That may go someway to... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, will no doubt... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
