US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The resilience of the ISM manufacturing index and the improvement in the ADP employment survey together suggest that the economy is starting to emerge from its summer soft patch. Unfortunately, there... 2nd December 2010 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound stalls The housing market recovery appears to have stalled before it even really began. Home sales fell back in October and the renewed downward trend in prices appears to have gathered pace. This is all... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 & Sep.) Economic growth has slowed considerably and indicators are pointing to another weak performance in the fourth quarter and sluggish 2% growth next year. Given expected productivity improvements, this... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Cons. Confidence (Nov.) & Case-Shiller House Prices (Q3) The rise in consumer confidence in November is not consistent with a sustained acceleration in consumption growth at a time when income growth is weak, the unemployment rate is high and a double dip... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US banks’ exposure to Europe has fallen While the health of European banks is once again in question, the financial crisis is becoming a distant memory for US banks. So far this year, they have enjoyed a decent rise in net income. Moreover... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack US demand dampens Q3 GDP growth (Canada) Recent export and manufacturing data provide further evidence that real GDP growth slowed further in the third quarter, possibly to as weak as 1% annualised. With little evidence pointing to much... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Companies still reluctant to boost hiring Our econometric model suggests that payroll employment increased by around 130,000 in November. That would be consistent with other evidence showing that labour market conditions have yet to improve... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q3) & New Home Sales (Oct.) The US economy once again has to contend with a faltering housing market, in which both prices and activity are falling. Thankfully, this second downward leg should be shorter and less severe than the... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders & Personal Spending (Oct.) October's durable goods orders and personal spending data suggest that households have started to pick up the baton of growth from businesses. Whether households will be able to carry the burden on... 24th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Emerging from the summer slowdown The economy appears to have emerged from its summer soft patch, with the growth of employment and retail sales both accelerating at the start of the fourth quarter. But economic growth is still... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Consumer Price Index (Oct.) While past increases in energy prices led to a stronger than expected inflation report in October, this shock is unlikely to be sustained. The knock-on effect of lower commodity prices next year... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Our Capital Economics' measure of M3 is falling year-on-year, albeit at a slower rate. The M2 aggregate is growing at an unusually slow pace, and credit is contracting. Over the past 12 months, the 3... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Muted recovery will eventually lead to deflation The US economic recovery shows few signs of any meaningful acceleration, suggesting that unemployment will remain chronically high and inflation will continue to edge towards zero. There is now a... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Deflation still the real danger Fears that the Fed has put the economy on the path towards rampant inflation looked even more misguided last week when it was announced that core CPI inflation fell to a record low of just 0.6% in... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What do higher commodity prices mean for the US? The recent sharp rises in agricultural commodity prices will boost inflation a little, help keep real consumption growth subdued and narrow the trade deficit. But the gains in prices seen so far are... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Housing Starts (Oct.) October's consumer price inflation figures support the recent argument made by several Fed officials, that they would have launched QE2 even if the Fed's mandate was to target price stability alone... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
