US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Oct.) After almost completely petering out over the past few months, October's industrial production data suggest that the manufacturing recovery may be gathering momentum again, driven by demand for... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's manufacturing sales provide further evidence supporting the view that growth in real GDP slowed further in the third quarter, possibly to as weak as 1% annualised, which would make Canada... 16th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US QE2 no boon for Canada The Fed's new programme of asset purchases (QE2) does not change our view that Canada faces an extended period of weak economic performance. We continue to expect GDP growth to stagger along at around... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) & Empire State Index (Nov.) October's retail sales are a fairly encouraging sign that consumption growth may be starting to gain some traction. But households' real spending power will soon be hit by higher gasoline and food... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed criticism over the top but not all unfounded The Fed's quantitative easing may be unconventional, but it is designed to work through the same channels as conventional changes in short-term interest rates; by lowering long-term interest rates... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has the US already begun a “currency war”? The first day of the G20 Summit has been overshadowed by fresh accusations that the US is deliberately engaging in a policy of weakening the dollar and that this is somehow underhand or reprehensible... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Firms' high ROE does not justify a re-rating of US equities US nonfarm, nonfinancial companies have enjoyed a rapid increase in their return on equity (ROE). This does not, however, imply that the stock market is attractively valued. For one thing, the... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September trade data indicate that net exports were a significant drag on thirdquarter real economic growth and leading indicators point to more of the same in the near future. Indeed, with prospects... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's Survey shows no evidence of loan rebound The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers reveals a disturbing drop off in the demand for new loans and the renewed tightening of credit conditions for residential mortgages and other consumer... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Bouncing along the bottom The housing market recovery has yet to begin with activity more or less bouncing along the bottom. Home sales did edge further above their post-tax credit low in September, but they remained 20% below... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly QE2 will not lead to runaway inflation It is very easy to understand why some fear that the Fed's second-round of quantitative easing will lead to a surge in inflation. But we suspect that the ultimate impact on core inflation will be... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's employment report was stronger than expected and, at the margin, reduces the risk we will actually see the unemployment rate edge higher over the coming months. Nevertheless, there is still... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) Having fully recovered the number of jobs lost during the recession, employment growth has now started to slow. Unfortunately, with the economic recovery losing momentum, prospects for employment... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update QE2 is no panacea for the US stock market The US stock market’s lukewarm reaction to yesterday’s FOMC statement suggests the scale and timing of the Fed’s additional monetary stimulus have been largely, though not completely, discounted. We... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
