Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada in no hurry to raise rates It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering hints of imminent rate... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Q1) The housing downturn has gone from bad to worse, with the FHFA index showing that prices in the first quarter fell at a faster rate than at any time since the height of the financial crisis in late... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Apr.) The 3.6% m/m drop back in durable goods orders in April isn't quite as bad as it looks, at least not when we take into account that decline only partially reversed the 4.4% m/m increase in March... 25th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The second consecutive strong rise in new home sales in April may even underestimate the recent rebound since the data exclude condo sales, which are probably performing better than sales of new... 24th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing renovation boom on shaky ground Renovation investment has risen to historically high levels in Canada. This boom in renovation is another symptom of a broader housing bubble. The very high level of construction employment is another... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US spends an unhealthy amount on health care There is little prospect of getting the Federal deficit under control in the long-term unless spending on health care is reined in or, at the very least, not allowed to continue growing at a faster... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The latest retail sales data confirm that real consumption growth slowed to just above 1% annualised in the first quarter, well below the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last year. Given the... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) Consumer price inflation remained at 3.3% in April, though still up from 2.3% just three months ago. Measures of underlying inflation, more importantly, remained subdued. Provided that inflation... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1) & Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Despite the modest fall in the share of mortgages in foreclosure in the first quarter, over four million homeowners are still in serious danger of losing their home. Moreover, it is worrying that... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Industrial production was unchanged in April and manufacturing output fell by 0.4% m/m, largely because of the disruption to motor vehicle production, which is being hampered by parts shortages in the... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) As most of the sharp fall in housing starts in April was due to the tornados that battered the south of the nation last month, homebuilding activity will probably bounce back in May. That said, at a... 17th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The annual growth rate of money, including our measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April. Nevertheless, at a time when T-bill rates have fallen even closer to zero, we suspect this... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) March's survey of manufacturers offers some encouraging news in the form of higher sales volumes and a jump in unfilled orders. With autos production operating at lower levels due to parts supply... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Rental market set to shine Over the next five years the rental market will be the best performing part of the residential housing market, with the multi-family sector doing particularly well. A sustained rise in rents is... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What's driven the rebound in exports? It's taken over two years, but the US is at last exporting as much as it was before the recession. And the lower dollar may soon give exports an extra lift. Nevertheless, as imports are rising just as... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation remains benign Last week's drop back in commodity prices was a stark reminder of why the Bank of Canada has largely ignored what looks increasingly like a temporary commodities-related spike in consumer price... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
