US Fed Watch Bernanke steps into brave new world The conclusion of next week's two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday will mark the start of a brave new world, with Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to host the Fed's first post-meeting press conference. We... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The pass through of higher commodity prices was behind the jump in CPI inflation, to 3.3% in March from 2.2% in February. Considering the temporary nature of these supply shocks, however, we still don... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit rating Given the size of the US Federal deficit, which will be close to 10% of GDP this year, and the daunting medium-term fiscal challenges, it is hard to argue with S&P's decision to put a negative outlook... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's economic update overly optimistic The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report showed that it expects the global economy to grow at a steady pace over the next three years. Closer to home, it assumes growth in the US economy will... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Ind. Prod'n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The pass through of higher agricultural and commodity prices continued in March, with a 0.8% m/m increase in food prices and a 5.6% m/m increase in gasoline prices leading to a 0.5% m/m increase in... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March's 0.4% m/m increase in US retail sales provides only half the story as the headline numbers are not adjusted for the rise in prices. The key message is that real spending is hardly rising, if at... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in February is a brief respite before the impact of the more recent surge in oil prices pushes the deficit sharply wider. In any case, it looks like net trade was a... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Debate on corporate tax rates warms up The debate surrounding the merits of corporate tax cuts continued last week, with the Globe and Mail running a front page headline that claimed the reductions already put in place hadn't boosted... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still a long way from raising rates Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack remains high Despite recent signs of a pick up, the economy is still not growing rapidly enough to drive the unemployment significantly lower. In addition, average hours worked remains well below normal levels... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) March's employment report was disappointing to everyone, with net employment edging lower by 1,500 jobs. Although the unemployment rate nudged lower, from 7.8% to 7.7%, this came about by way of fewer... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Still in the doldrums The further fall in house prices at the end of last year has made housing look more under-valued relative to income than ever before. (See Chart below.) This appears to be attracting cash buyers and... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
