US Chart Pack Improving activity surveys points to strong first half The economic outlook appears to have improved recently, with both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices improving to multi-year highs in January. We certainly anticipate a strong first... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The upward trend in existing home sales is set to remain slow and steady rather than speedy and spectacular. 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Another year of falling prices House prices will decline by at least 5% this year. The real danger is that a vicious circle of falling prices and rising foreclosures drags prices down even further. 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Q4) & Confidence (Feb.) The further fall in the Case-Shiller measure of national house prices at the end of last year took prices to a new cycle low, meaning that a double-dip is now officially underway. Prices are likely to... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A consumption storm For the first time in a year, real consumption probably declined in January. Last month's unusually heavy snowfalls may be partly to blame. But the bad weather probably only exacerbated the slowing... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jan.) It is just a matter of time before the recent rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices lead to higher consumer price inflation. Even though the headline CPI inflation rate edged down to 2.3%... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Four obstacles to housing finance reform The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4) Better labour market conditions led to a significant fall in the share of delinquent mortgages at the end of last year. Further falls in the unemployment rate this year are likely to push the... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices increased by 0.4% m/m in January, as the surge in commodity prices continued to feed through. 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery still dependent on policy stimulus The recovery regained momentum over the final few months of last year and, helped by the boost from the latest fiscal stimulus, we expect GDP growth of 3% this year. 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Monthly Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's survey of manufacturers was a disappointment, to us and almost everyone. Not only was growth in shipments much weaker than most had expected, more importantly declines in new and unfilled... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jan.) The 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing output in January is actually quite encouraging, given that the already reported drop in average hours worked by manufacturing employees last month suggests the... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Despite the rebound in January, housing starts remain at an unusually low level. This is unlikely to change when there is little need for new homes or when falling prices and rising costs are denting... 16th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Despite the acceleration in the growth rate of the narrow M1 monetary aggregate, the growth of the broader M2 aggregate remains muted and our M3 measure is still shrinking. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) & Empire State Index (Feb.) The retail sector started the year on a soft note, suggesting that consumption growth is losing momentum. This is perhaps even more worrying at a time when spending should be receiving a boost from... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordability The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
