US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The Fed's QE2 programme of Treasury purchases is yet to have any impact on the broader monetary aggregates, let alone price inflation. The annual growth rate of our Capital Economics' measure of M3... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are small businesses missing the recovery? The unexpected dip in the NFIB gauge of small business optimism in December has reignited fears that smaller firms are missing out on the recovery. As we have pointed out before, however, the NFIB... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December's retail sales and consumer price reports together suggest that real consumption growth accelerated to 3.8% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.4% in the third. If our calculations are... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Rising financial risks spell trouble The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold the key policy interest rate at 1% on Tuesday. More importantly, we expect it to hold the policy rate at 1% throughout this year. This is in contrast to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November trade data show that net exports jumped in Q4, due to stronger commodity-related exports and also surprisingly weaker imports. Barring a collapse in December exports, we estimate that net... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) & PPI (Dec.) November's trade figures support our view that annualised GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year was at least 4%, better than the consensus forecast of just over 3%. Meanwhile, December's... 13th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates rebound The rebound in 30-year mortgage rates from a record low of 4.2% to just under 5% has put a small dent in the already fragile outlook for the housing market. (See Chart below.) Admittedly, mortgage... 11th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is consumption still as sensitive to house prices? The second downward leg in house prices, which began last year, is likely to have a smaller impact on consumer spending than the initial plunge both in proportionate and absolute terms. Nonetheless... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 103,000 gain in payroll employment in December was very disappointing after the spectacular 297,000 gain touted by the ADP survey. Admittedly, the drop in the unemployment rate, from 9.8% in... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Despite the modest acceleration in employment growth in December, Canada's economy didn't generate enough net new jobs to drive the unemployment rate any lower. The unemployment rate remained... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Non-Manufact'ng & ADP Employment (Dec.) The latest ISM non-manufacturing and ADP private payroll surveys both suggest that the economic recovery picked up some significant momentum towards the end of last year. Growth should remain fairly... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The recent improvement in economic conditions has done little to support housing demand, with mortgage applications for home purchase in December remaining close to historically depressed levels. With... 5th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't trust the initial jobless claims figures The sharp decline in the number of initial jobless claims towards the end of last year should not be interpreted as a sign that the labour market recovery is gaining momentum. Nonetheless, the 39,000... 4th January 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The improvement in December's ISM manufacturing index, along with the rebound in construction spending in November, suggests that the recovery is regaining some of the momentum lost during the Summer. 3rd January 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downside risks stem mainly from crippling debt In the last US Weekly of the year we want to flag up the main risks surrounding our new forecast that GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2011, before slowing to 2.0% in 2012. The main upside risk is that we are... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
