Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation will remain muted Although the past run-up in agricultural commodity prices will push food prices and headline CPI inflation somewhat higher later this year, we also predict that measures of underlying CPI inflation... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed won't be swayed by higher inflation The statement issued after last week's FOMC meeting made it pretty clear that the Fed wouldn't be rushing to tighten policy in response to the recent surge in commodity prices, at least not while core... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Feb.) The modest dip in inflation in February was largely due to some strong base year effects, stemming from the spike in prices during last year's winter Olympic Games. We still expect headline CPI... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Industrial Prod'n (Feb.) & Philly Fed (Mar.) Higher headline CPI inflation and the strength of the manufacturing recovery are not going to sway the Fed when core inflation remains muted and other sectors of the economy, notably housing, are... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response PPI, Housing Starts (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The surge in PPI inflation won't sway the Fed. It has already said that it expects the commodity-related upturn will be "transitory". With core PPI inflation still low and the economic recovery... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) January's survey of manufacturers indicates that production continued to recover lost ground early in the New Year. Much of this strength is attributed to the pick-up in auto production. There is no... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt limit spat has unleashed QE3 by stealth One of the unintentional side effects of the current impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling is that it has led to a significant expansion of the monetary base. Indeed, the drop in the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m increase in February's retail sales may only have been in line with the consensus forecast, but the composition of that growth and the sizeable upward revisions to the gains in the two... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February’s employment report was lukewarm, with net employment rising by 15,100. Nonetheless, job creation over the last three months suggests that the pace of underlying economic growth is improving... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) January's merchandise trade data was heavily influenced by activity in the auto sector. Mixed export figures and stronger imports (revisions included) suggest that the first-quarter contribution from... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month high of $46.3bn in January, from 40.3bn, owed very little to the rising cost of imported oil. Instead, it was mainly due to the strength of... 10th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity (Q4) Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Mortgage Applic'ns (Feb.) & Negative Equity (Q4) Mortgage applications continued to trend lower in February, underlining the point we've made before that the latest rebound in home sales is being driven almost exclusively by cash buyers and... 9th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to follow hawkish ECB's lead Despite signs that other central banks may be preparing to tighten policy, we don't expect to see the Fed following suit, either by calling an early halt to QE2 or raising interest rates later this... 8th March 2011 · 1 min read
