Bonds Update How would Treasuries fare if the AI bubble burst? Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year... 18th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) Global property returns have improved in 2025, though performance in APAC and the US has lagged Europe. This divergence is set to continue in 2026. However, we expect performance in the US will... 17th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook AI bubble could inflate more before it bursts We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some... 17th December 2025 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily Would an end to the AI boom drag down EM equities? Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the US economy is influencing cyclical stocks The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a... 16th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Oct & Nov 2025) The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise... 16th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in... 16th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025) The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily No holiday cheer for the bond market The last full working week of 2025 is a busy one. Half of the G10 central banks announce policy, alongside several key economic data points including delayed US payrolls data. Government bond yields... 15th December 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Nov. 25) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate jumped to $13.8bn in November, the strongest monthly outturn since February 2023. That followed a strong month for net lending in October, and as a... 12th December 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly ICT services still riding the AI boom The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
