Canada Economics Weekly Population growth slowing to a crawl It seems likely that the Trump administration’s clamp down on legal immigration will boost the attractiveness of Canada for many migrants, but that won’t change the big picture that population growth... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug 2025) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2025) Although July GDP surprised to the upside, the flash estimate that output was unchanged in August will temper any optimism about the economy quickly gaining momentum. While a repeat of the sharp... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply uncertainties re-emerge as key driver of prices For all the recent focus on soft demand dynamics, developments on the supply side have been the main driver of oil prices this week. Heightened uncertainty is driving pessimism among US oil producers... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to weigh on job growth We forecast a 50,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in September, as the continued slimming of the federal workforce limits any rebound in private payrolls growth. We also expect the unemployment rate to... 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2025) The low-and-barely changed level of existing home sales in August is yet more evidence of the quagmire the existing home market has been stuck in for a couple of years now. While the downward trend in... 25th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for China’s stock market as its AI+ plan gets going China’s stock market got a boost today, as Alibaba announced its latest plans for AI. Despite the challenges faced by China’s economy, we suspect there is more upside for MSCI’s tech-heavy China Index... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update How concerning is elevated long-run unemployment? We suspect the main reason why the long-run unemployment rate has shot up is the surge in immigration since the pandemic, as many of these migrants have struggled to find work. This suggests the... 24th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Aug. 2025) Lower borrowing costs supported a surge in new home sales in August, and could drive further increases in the coming months, given the continued decline in mortgage rates since then. 24th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What do market prices say about the US neutral rate? Market pricing suggests that investors think the neutral rate isn’t too far below the current level of the fed funds rate. We agree, which is one reason we don’t expect a renewed rally in US... 23rd September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update H-1B change highlights crackdown on legal immigration too The White House’s decision to impose a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visas confirms that the Trump administration is also determined to clamp down on legal immigration, which could further reduce... 22nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Final value falls deferred again, but US CRE still overvalued Our view that capital values still need to fall by 5% at the all-property level keeps our forecasts below consensus. Based on our forecast of a long-term 10-year Treasury yield of 4.5%, appraised cap... 22nd September 2025 · 21 mins read
Global Economics Update Inside the latest central bank decisions We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to unpack the September meetings of major advanced economy central banks. (Recording available here.) The key takeaway was that in the US, markets seem to... 22nd September 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed puts the dollar on firmer footing The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
