Equities Update Why a hawkish Fed may be good news for stocks Even if the Fed were to deliver less easing than the ~90bp currently priced into financial markets over the coming year, history suggests that wouldn’t prevent further strong gains from the US equity... 25th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Sep 2025) The 0.1% m/m rise in house prices in September matched August’s modest gain, and points to a tentative house price recovery from here. We are predicting that a pick-up in demand paired with nagging... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Sep. 2025) The PPI components feeding into the PCE deflator were, on balance, slightly hotter than we had initially anticipated, leading us to estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.25% m/m in September. 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Sep 2025) The slightly softer-than-expected retail sales data for September won’t be enough to spoil the third quarter, with our estimate of third-quarter GDP growth still 3.6% annualised. But, together with... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Fed December meeting – A tight call and the 2026 policy outlook 10th December 2025, 9:00PM GMT Our economists were online on Wednesday 10th December, shortly after the statement and the Powell press conference, to deliver their take on the decision and the latest communications.
Capital Daily What to make of the AI and fiscal concerns roiling markets Equity markets remain under pressure even after positive news on both AI demand and the US labour market. A renewed sell-off in Japan’s bond market isn’t helping matters. Meanwhile, we think the UK... 24th November 2025 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed Dec rate cut decision going down to the wire The minutes of the October FOMC meeting were unusually blunt, warning that “many” Fed participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, the... 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft data lends credence to need for more easing A busy week of data releases has left us more confident in our view that the Bank of Canada will feel the need to cut its policy rate below neutral at some point next year to support the economy – not... 21st November 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent slide in the stock market Our base case is that the bubble in AI hasn’t burst: we still think it has another year or so to inflate. But given Thursday’s pullback in equities, it isn’t out of the question that it is starting to... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Sep. 2025) The drop in retail sales in September means growth in household consumption slowed to around 1.0% annualised in the third quarter, from 4.5% in the second. With the advance estimate for October... 21st November 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update What if the AI stock market boom turned to bust? If the AI stock market boom turned to bust, we suspect the correction would be somewhat smaller but significantly shorter-lived than the one that took place after the dotcom bubble burst. 21st November 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q4 2025 All-property capital values were flat in Q3 and our CE Capital Value Lead Indicator suggests more of the same in Q4 and into early 2026. Lagging appraisal adjustments and still-high financing costs... 20th November 2025 · 0 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2025) Lower borrowing costs were behind the further small pick-up in existing home sales last month. As we expect less Fed policy easing next year than markets are currently pricing in, however, mortgage... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Sep) The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The AI rally is running on fundamentals, not fumes Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. 20th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (October 28-29) The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of the year... 19th November 2025 · 2 mins read
