Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada’s easing cycle over… for now The Bank of Canada is all but guaranteed to keep its policy rate on hold next week, although the weakness of domestic demand and fading core price pressures mean we still expect rates to eventually be... 3rd December 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Nov 2025) The sizeable fall back in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated next year, but by much less than implied by last month’s release. That... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Sep. 2025) The small rise in industrial production in September and revisions to previous months’ data mean output was unchanged across the third quarter as a whole. With the timelier ISM manufacturing index... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Nov 2025) The modest fall in the ADP payrolls measure in November, coming on the back of a similar message from the Fed’s Beige Book, should be enough to persuade the FOMC to vote for another cut next week... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Nov 2025) The second consecutive decline in mortgage activity in November, as the previous decline in mortgage rates came to an end, supports our view that home sales are unlikely to rise by as much as most... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2025) The further small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in November adds to the evidence that tariffs and related uncertainty are weighing on the factory sector, though not entirely crippling it. 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 25) The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of... 1st December 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Mega-cap divergence & FOMC disagreements Equity markets have finally got into the festive spirit, with a fairly broad-based rebound underway. In part, that appears to reflect renewed hopes for more Fed easing, which we think will ultimately... 1st December 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy doing poorly despite upside GDP surprise The upside surprise to third-quarter GDP growth greatly overstates the strength of the economy, with household spending contracting for the first time since the pandemic. Similarly, the Survey of... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q3 2025 and Sep) The big upside surprise to GDP growth last quarter was entirely due to a sharp drop back in imports and masks a much more worrying contraction in domestic demand. The declines in household consumption... 28th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty over next Fed Chair clouds rate outlook The outlook for fed policy next year will depend not only on the economic outlook, but also whether a new Trump-appointed Fed Chair, from May, can convince his colleagues that rates should be cut... 26th November 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Sep 2025) September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. 26th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update S&P 500 valuation breadth gives cause for optimism While the S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated in terms of earnings and market capitalisation, high valuations have not concentrated in the same way. Instead, there has been broad-based... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) Property edged into fair value territory in Q3, extending recent improvements, despite real estate yields moving lower. This will help support investment ahead, though we think appraised cap rates... 26th November 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More to this rebound than rate cut expectations Falling real yields have supported a broad rally in the US stock market today. But the larger gains yesterday owed little to rate expectations, highlighting that falling yields are not needed for... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We think the AI-investment boom is still in its relatively early stages and will eventually drive strong productivity gains as adoption of the technology rises. This keeps us optimistic on the growth... 25th November 2025 · 1 min read
