Capital Daily

Euro-zone credit spreads may largely shrug off weak growth

We think corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone will widen only slightly next year, despite dim economic prospects.

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Industrial Production (Nov. 2024)

The fall in industrial production in November, despite the partial reversal of the earlier temporary disruptions caused by the hurricanes and strike at Boeing, highlights that the factory sector is...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The surprise fall in headline inflation back below the 2.0% target in November reflected steep price falls in a handful of components related to consumer goods, driven by Black Friday discounts, which...

17th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Nov. 2024)

The solid rise in retail sales in November was led by vehicle sales but still showed signs of broad-based strength, with control group sales increasing at a healthy pace too. This suggests fourth...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Fall Economic Statement a secondary event

The Fall Economic Statement (FES) showed a much larger budget deficit for the previous fiscal year than previously estimated, but that was largely due to one-off charges related to indigenous...

16th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Housing Watch (Dec. 2024)

The rise in home sales in November builds on the jump in October and is particularly positive considering some buyers may have held off from purchases ahead of the new mortgage rules that took effect...

16th December 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy

Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Muted price data cements 25bp cut

The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting.

13th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Outlook

Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard

Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of...

13th December 2024 · 23 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Oct. 2024)

The upside surprises to both manufacturing and wholesale sales in October supports our view that the near-term economic outlook is now better than the Bank of Canada seems to think. It looks likely...

13th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year

The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh

The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Bonds Focus

What to make of shrinking IG credit spreads

Despite being around multi-decade lows, we think credit spreads of US investment-grade corporate bonds could fall further still over the next year or so.

12th December 2024 · 11 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (Nov)

Ignore the fact that PPI final demand prices increased by a slightly bigger than expected 0.4% m/m in November. The components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE index were universally weak and...

12th December 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify

Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks...

12th December 2024 · 22 mins read