FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Dollar on the up as tariffs loom The dollar looks set to come out on top against most currencies after a week of central bank meetings, corporate earnings and economic data generally shifted yield gaps in its favour and reinforced US... 31st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Re-routing to become the name of the game While expectations for tariffs and sanctions have buffeted industrial metals prices this week, the lesson from previous periods has been that trade flows will readjust relatively quickly, leaving... 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Dec) December’s personal income and spending report brought news of another strong gain in real consumption, but with price pressures muted. 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Nov. 2024) The larger-than-expected decline in GDP in November and flash estimate of only a moderate rebound in December suggest that growth was 1.6% annualised last quarter, a little lower than we and the Bank... 31st January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily DeepSeek’s threat to US equity outperformance We don’t think US equity market outperformance is over yet, despite the challenge from DeepSeek. 31st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Bund yields falling this year even if UST yields don’t Even though we forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2025 close to its current level, we anticipate that the 10-year Bund yield will fall over the rest of the year as the ECB, unlike the Fed... 30th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q4 RICS survey confirms US CRE recovery is on its way The Q4 RICS commercial property survey saw investment sentiment turn positive for the first time since 2022 and a shift in perceptions of cycle phase, with the majority now believing we have reached... 30th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Revisions to sour image of buoyant labour market We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which would mark a slight acceleration from the recent average if we are right in assuming that there will be downward revision to past... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Politics take centre stage on both sides of the Atlantic Political opposition to the EU’s stringent climate policy has been growing, particularly given the backdrop of the bloc’s struggling industrial sector. The pressure on politicians to dilute Europe’s... 30th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2024) The 2.3% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little weaker than the consensus estimate at 2.6%, but expectations would have come down a little after the December advance economic indicators... 30th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed moves to the sidelines The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% today and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Jan) The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at between 4.25% and 4.50% and the accompanying statement suggests the FOMC is happy to remain on the sidelines, as it awaits more clarity on the potentially... 29th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank cuts by 25bp amid looming 25% tariff threat With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a closer call were it not for the looming threat of tariffs. Admittedly, the Bank hinted that... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jan. 2025.) With the economy doing better recently, the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut by 25bp today might have been a much closer call were it not for the looming threat of US tariffs. Any tariffs could hit... 29th January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus US Focus: The inflationary impact of tariffs for all President Trump’s various tariff threats would, if implemented in full, trigger a rebound in consumer price inflation later this year to between 3% and 4%, which would make it much harder for the Fed... 28th January 2025 · 16 mins read
Equities Update The rally in bank stocks has room to run US bank stocks in the S&P 500 have generally outperformed their peers over the past year and the key factors driving this look set to persist in 2025. So, we think they will remain around the front of... 28th January 2025 · 5 mins read
