Capital Daily What to make of the mixed reaction to this week’s big-tech results The mixed reaction to this week’s news from some of the US hyperscalers may reflect growing concern about the cost of the AI arms race. But our forecast is that the big-tech sectors will fuel more... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly December rate cut still the most likely outcome The Fed delivered a hawkish rate cut this week, with Chair Jerome Powell pushing back against market expectations for another at the next FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, we would argue that it makes more... 31st October 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus shifts from monetary to fiscal policy Despite the hawkish messaging from the Bank of Canada alongside its cut this week, we suspect it will be forced to resume lowering interest rates next year. For now, the attention shifts to fiscal... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug 2025) The shock 0.3% m/m decline in GDP in August is not quite as bad as it looks, given the role played by temporary factors and the accompanying upward revision to growth in July. Nonetheless, it provides... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Bonds & Equities Making sense of the changing nature of the AI capex boom US hyperscalers are increasingly using leases as an alternative to capital spending. This Update considers why that is happening and its implications for them, the lessors, and the economy more... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update China’s equities have more to gain as tensions ease We think China’s equities stand to benefit more than those in the US from any further easing in US-China tensions. That said, we still think the US stock market will outperform China’s over the next... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Carbon tax gets docked; renewable outlook dims The delay to implementing a global carbon tax on shipping emissions – that was described by President Trump as a “scam tax” – is another example of policymakers backsliding on climate ambitions and it... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q3 US RICS survey shows growing market confidence Investment sentiment saw a sharp improvement in Q3, buoyed by falling interest rates and growing confidence in the economic outlook, although foreign enquiries remained in the doldrums. There was also... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoJ, the ECB, and the bond market The Fed and the BoJ sent their respective government bond markets in different directions earlier today, but we expect yields in both places to rise over time. By contrast, while the ECB is likely to... 30th October 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed cuts and ends QT, but further loosening not guaranteed The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected, with dissents in both directions, and Chair Jerome... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Oct) The Fed cut its policy rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 3.75% and 4.00%, but the vote was a little more balanced than we had expected. While Trump-appointee Stephen Miran again voted for a... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings results could trump the Fed The market reaction to news around US-Asia trade is yet another reminder of how crucial the AI narrative is for the stock market and, accordingly, how significant big tech earnings results today and... 29th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts but thinks it has done enough With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut widely anticipated, the key development today was the signal that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%... 29th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Oct. 2025) With the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut today widely anticipated, the key development was that it signalled that it now thinks the policy rate is “at about the right level to keep inflation close to... 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update The Treasury forces the Fed's hand on QT If the Fed does decide to call time on its quantitative tightening (QT) this week it will be responding to the Treasury’s efforts to rebuild its cash reserves after the debt ceiling was raised this... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 2025) The slight decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in October leaves it at its lowest since “Liberation Day” and will help assure the Fed that another interest rate cut tomorrow is... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
