Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec. 2025) The housing market weakened in November, with sales activity and house prices both recording declines. Even so, the further improvement in the sales-to-new-listing ratio raises our confidence that... 15th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Oct. 2025) The fall in manufacturing sales in October appears to have been mostly the result of newly-implemented US tariffs weighing on certain sectors, or at least the threat thereof. We expect trade... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025) The below-target gain in three of the four main core prices measures in November reinforces our view that markets have gotten ahead of themselves by pricing in higher interest rates from the Bank of... 15th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily No holiday cheer for the bond market The last full working week of 2025 is a busy one. Half of the G10 central banks announce policy, alongside several key economic data points including delayed US payrolls data. Government bond yields... 15th December 2025 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Nov. 25) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate jumped to $13.8bn in November, the strongest monthly outturn since February 2023. That followed a strong month for net lending in October, and as a... 12th December 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly ICT services still riding the AI boom The Quarterly Services Survey report, released to little fanfare this Thursday, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven again by AI-related double-digit... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unmoved by positive jobs data The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25% this week, wrapping up a year in which it has cut interest rates by a cumulative 100bp. Barring any shocks, the Bank appears comfortable keeping the... 12th December 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Sep) The trade deficit narrowed markedly to $52.8bn in September, from $59.3bn, as exports increased by 3.0% m/m, easily outpacing a 0.6% m/m gain in imports. It now appears that third-quarter GDP growth... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Dec 2025) We expect GDP growth to average around 1% annualised over the next four quarters as household spending, investment and exports all remain subdued, while the latest budget won’t provide much short-term... 11th December 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fed still a threat to Treasuries, tailwind for greenback Our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will rally in 2026, as the Fed delivers just one more cut. But Wednesday’s meeting highlighted some of the risks to that view 11th December 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed softens blow of hawkish cut with asset purchase restart The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks influenced the accompanying policy statement, which notes that the FOMC will... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The FOMC overcame its divisions to vote for another interest rate cut today, albeit with three dissenting votes. The hawks on the Committee had a clear influence on the accompanying policy statement... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank tempers hike expectations amid stronger labour market The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected. While there was recognition from policymakers that the labour market had... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebounded in Nov after likely Oct slump Following a likely 60,000 slump in October, as more than 100,000 workers dropped off the federal payroll, we estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by 50,000 in November. We expect the unemployment... 10th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Dec 2025) The Bank of Canada kept its key policy rate at the bottom of its 2.25% to 3.25% neutral range estimate today, as expected, while acknowledging that the economic outlook has improved somewhat since... 10th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Fed policy isn’t everything for Treasuries 10-year Treasury yields have risen in recent weeks despite investors moving to price in a rate cut today. One reason for that seems to have been an increase in the term premium, and we expect this... 10th December 2025 · 4 mins read
