US Commercial Property Update Austin knocks Nashville off top spot for US remote workers Our updated analysis of the most attractive apartment markets for remote workers sees Austin nudge Nashville into second place after two years at the top of the table, with San Antonio climbing to... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Market impact of more defence spending in Europe While the prospect of more defence spending in Europe is pushing up government bond yields there, we still expect Bund yields to fall back. Meanwhile, even if defence stocks in Europe kept outpacing... 3rd March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February likely marks the beginning of the end of the recent mini renaissance, as the reality of the disruption to the sector caused by tariffs (including... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trumpcession? Following the 0.5% m/m slump in real consumption in January and the massive 10% m/m surge in real goods imports, we now expect first-quarter GDP to contract by 1.0% annualised. Assuming that surge in... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank weighing up strong GDP versus tariff threats There were mixed signals from the White House this week over whether the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada will come into effect as scheduled on March 4th. Providing that does not happen, then the... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) All-property values edged down by 0.1% in Q4 but the magnitude of decline narrowed. Appraisal-based cap rates also fell for the first time since mid-2022. However, we still believe appraisals have... 28th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan. 2025) The 0.28% m/m rise in core PCE prices in January was a big improvement on last year’s 0.5% m/m gain, but the 2.6% annual core inflation rate is still too hot for the Fed’s liking and, with... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2024 and Dec) The 2.6% annualised gain in GDP last quarter was much stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for a 1.8% increase and was accompanied by sizeable upward revisions to data in previous quarters... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to evade federal cutbacks for now We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the “Trump trade” already over? Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jan. 2025) The increase in durable goods orders in January was due to the volatile transport component, while core orders were unchanged. Although underlying capital goods shipments fell, business investment... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
