Global Economics Update What if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada and Mexico? This Update answers some key questions about the likely implications of the US imposing 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Our current forecasts are based on the assumption of a 10% universal... 27th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Trump and US CRE: Four key client questions The first week of the new Trump administration hasn’t thrown up any huge surprises in terms of policy announcements. But there remains considerable uncertainty about the impact of those policies and... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: What have we learned from Trump’s first week? President Donald Trump’s first week back in office kicked off with a bang. He signed around 100 executive orders and strongly signalled that there were more policy changes to come. The week’s... 24th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariff uncertainty casts clouds over recent upturn Donald Trump's first week back in office brought renewed threats of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada, with a potential imposition date of February 1st also thrown in. Such uncertainty will dog... 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US: Existing Home Sales (Dec. 2024) The small rise in existing home sales in December reflects deals that came together in September and October, when mortgage rates hit a nadir of 6.2%, getting across the line. Given the recent selloff... 24th January 2025 · 1 min read
Bonds Update How much yield divergence can we expect this year? We forecast bond yields to fall over the rest of 2025 in Germany, the UK, and New Zealand, even though we think the relief rally in US Treasuries is over. And we anticipate yields to rise in Japan. 24th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump starts with a bang; EU gas higher for longer? President Trump hit the ground running by declaring a National Energy Emergency and outlining his desire for lower oil prices. Whilst Trump has put the focus on ramping up oil supply to bring oil... 24th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response Trump leaves door open for Saudi to flood the market The news from Davos that President Trump will “ask Saudi Arabia and Opec to bring down the cost of oil” is certainly in keeping with his desire for lower gasoline prices and his clear intention to use... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may not yet ride to non-US equities’ rescue Although developed market (DM) equities outside the US have purportedly benefited from bargain hunting recently, we doubt they will outperform their counterparts in the US over the course of 2025 as a... 23rd January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Global real estate can shake off latest bond yield rises Renewed rises in market interest rates across the UK, US and euro-zone have prompted questions about the implications for real estate. For now, we think the upside risk to property yields is small. We... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi-US relations already warming under Trump Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US already appear to be on a stronger footing during Donald Trump’s first few days in office, adding to signs that it’s drift towards China is over. The Kingdom... 23rd January 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) On the surface, the 0.4% decline in retail sales volumes in November looks worrying, but that fall partly reflects households delaying purchases ahead of the December GST holiday. Encouragingly... 23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Focus What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? The declaration of a National Energy Emergency underlines President Trump’s aspiration to extend the US’s dominance in global energy markets, and his willingness to use the US’s clout as leverage will... 23rd January 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of Trump’s take on the Panama Canal President Trump’s threats to retake ownership of the Panama Canal reflects its importance for US trade and the country’s strategic interests. It’s possible that these threats are simply another... 23rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada Watch: Tariff uncertainty favours 25bp cut The recent pick-up in GDP growth and core inflation pressures could justify a pause from the Bank of Canada next week but, with tariffs clouding the economic outlook, we judge that the Governing... 22nd January 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily AI: shooting for the stars Donald Trump’s ringing endorsement of Stargate is another shot in the arm for Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the early days of his second presidency, and supports our long-standing view that the S&P... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
