Capital Daily The end of the end of US exceptionalism? Debate over the end of US equity exceptionalism had quietened over the past month amid a historic rally, but with US assets selling off today debate may reignite. Our sense is that US stocks will hold... 21st May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central America most exposed to a US remittance tax The proposed 5% US tax on remittance outflows would have a particularly large negative impact on Central American economies such as Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. Remittance flows could... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Tariff revenue should largely offset new tax cuts The budget reconciliation bill currently working its way through the House of Representatives, which includes a permanent extension of the original Trump tax cuts plus cut-down versions of his... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US downgrade comes at tough time for Treasuries The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem... 19th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Housing market weakness becomes harder to ignore The softening housing market has mostly flown under the radar, but that is soon likely to change following April’s data, which showed house prices taking another sharp leg down. Combined with the... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Was Trump right about tariffs? The lack of any obvious tariff effect in either the price or activity data for April raises an interesting question – is it just taking longer for it to show up or was President Trump right after all... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May 2025) The weaker-than-expected May print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was driven by a further increase in inflation expectations and suggests households remain wary about the... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2025) The small rebound in housing starts in April is more troubling than it appears, as it barely recoups the sharp, weather-related decline seen in March and conceals renewed weakness in both single- and... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Easing supply risks sharpens focus on soft oil demand Despite the latest tariff rollback, commodity demand is still set to soften this year. In oil markets, with supply set to rise as OPEC+ brings back barrels more quickly than first planned, the risks... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr. 2025) At face value, the stagnation of industrial production in April and the fall in manufacturing output suggest that tariffs are weighing on domestic production. However, some of this is due to an... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
