Commodities Update Commodities escape firing line, but caught in crossfire The exemptions granted to many commodities from reciprocal tariffs suggests that the Trump administration is reticent to drive a further wedge between US and international metals prices and/or risk... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Mar. 2025) The fall in the ISM services index in March shows that the weakness isn’t isolated to the manufacturing sector. Our weighted average ISM index is consistent with the economy contracting, although it... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump makes Canada okay again Canada has escaped much more lightly than we feared from President Trump’s big announcement, with the import-weighted US tariff likely to be 8% based on current plans and potentially below 5% in the... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit in February was driven by stronger exports, mainly of non-monetary gold, while imports remained at record levels, as businesses continued to rush orders ahead of... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb 2025) The large fall in exports in February was to be expected given the (albeit temporary) imposition of tariffs on goods imports into the US that month. While Canada may have gotten off relatively lightly... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day” Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump reciprocal tariff blow bigger than we expected President Donald Trump’s country-specific reciprocal tariffs turned out to be bigger than expected, with our calculations pointing to an import-weighted average tariff of 15.0%. If, as the Executive... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles? Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones? While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further. 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
