US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed to pause easing cycle We expect the strength of the economy and uncertainty over immigration and trade policy to prompt the Fed to pause its easing cycle at next week’s FOMC meeting, despite recent improvements in the near... 22nd January 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of Trump’s latest trade plans? The “America First Trade Policy” White House memorandum makes it clear that tariffs are coming, although we still have little clarity on the timing. There are some signs that a universal tariff could... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) The economy continues to do well with GDP growing strongly, employment growth solid and core inflation pressures easing again. We are concerned, however, that the Trump administration’s policies will... 21st January 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in headline inflation to 1.8% in December is not as encouraging as it looks, with the details suggesting that a higher proportion of the GST holiday was captured by the price surveys... 21st January 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Mr Trump goes (back) to Washington President Donald Trump returned to the White House today with pen already in hand to sign what is expected to be close to 100 executive orders. That flurry of executive action will set the tone on... 20th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s term starts with a bang in markets Fresh reports that President Trump will not impose tariffs on Day 1 mean that his inauguration has, quite fittingly, coincided with a volatile day across financial markets. Although we suspect that a... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys show steady improvement The Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys support our view that GDP growth will pick-up this quarter and suggest there are some upside risks to our forecast for another 75bp of... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US twin deficits a growing vulnerability The precarious nature of the outlook for the Federal budget deficit is well appreciated at this stage, but arguably the bigger long-term risk is the mounting current account deficit. With the primary... 21st January 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update China green exports end 2024 on a record high China’s exports of the “New Three” ended last year at a new record high as US firms continued to ramp-up imports of Chinese-made batteries. Meanwhile, the backdrop of heightened tariffs and slowing... 20th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: The disunited provinces of Canada The federal government is planning to fight US tariffs with tariffs, but reports this week suggest that those would cover a far smaller value of goods than the US is likely to hit. The government has... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Near-term inflation outlook improves The December PPI, CPI and import price data were together consistent with a muted 0.14% m/m increase in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator measure. After a brief resurgence in inflationary... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in industrial production in December is consistent with the recent improvement in the survey evidence. However, we do not think this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in the... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (Dec. 2024) The large rebound in housing starts and continued resilience of building permits in December provides some support to our forecast that starts will remain solid in the first half of the year. However... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Commodities caught in the geopolitical crossfire As the ramp-up in US sanctions against Russia's energy sector has demonstrated, commodities are increasingly being caught in the crossfire of broader geopolitical machinations and tariff policy. The... 17th January 2025 · 4 mins read
