US Rapid Response US PPI (Jan 2025) Final demand PPI increased by a bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m, but the components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price measure were, on the whole, very tame. As a result, we now estimate that... 13th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – who’s at risk? If the Trump administration pursues a reciprocal tariff strategy rather than a 10% universal tariff, then it could result in a smaller rise in the overall effective tariff rate than we have assumed... 13th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off has a bit further to run Another January price surge has sparked a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, and supports our view that further Fed rate cuts are off the table this year. While we think US equities will resume their... 12th February 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail is back, but online will remain a drag into the 2030s Five years ago, the retail sector was staring at the abyss, as lockdowns and virus-related restrictions worsened what was already a crisis in demand. The turnaround since has been dramatic. But while... 12th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Keeping track of “cost and chaos” in metals markets Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has poetically described the impacts in metals markets so far of President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium as “a lot of cost and chaos”. Our new... 12th February 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2025) The 0.45% m/m increase in core CPI in January will, after the spike at this time last year, add to the impression that the price data have a residual seasonality problem. Assuming the producer price... 12th February 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market able to withstand D.C. shakeup Due to the relatively small size of the federal workforce and the large number of exempt positions, the federal government hiring freeze should have only a modest impact on payroll employment. More... 11th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Getting to grips with TIPS Although the 10-year TIPS yield has fallen on net since the start of this year, we doubt it will drop to an even lower level by the end of 2025. That’s because we don’t expect the slight further... 11th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the line that the Fed was in no hurry to adjust its policy stance in his semi-annual testimony to Congress today. Given that inflation remains above target and the... 11th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Economics Update: Steel and aluminum tariffs will cause little harm The newly-announced 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports entering the US will have a limited impact on the Canadian economy given that exports of these products account for just 1% of GDP... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Steel, aluminum and reciprocal tariffs The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum come at a time when domestic capacity utilisation and import intensity are low, implying they will have less of an impact on overall prices... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US office inventory to shrink further by 2030 While 2024 was the first year in which inventory removals outpaced completions, we expect strong conversions activity to make it the first of many. Indeed, thanks to further declines in office... 10th February 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of steel and aluminium tariffs The direct impact on the global economy of President Trump’s latest proposed tariffs would be small since steel and aluminium account for a very small share of world trade. Canada’s economy is... 10th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (February 2025) Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs... 10th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The art of the deal While President Donald Trump’s U-turn on 25% tariffs for Canada and Mexico serves as a good reminder that he is always open to cutting a deal, be careful writing tariffs off altogether. China came... 7th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Trump aggression sparks long-term re-think The aggression shown towards Canada by President Donald Trump this week has raised big questions around the country's future in three key areas: trade, investment and defence. While some of the plans... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
