Global Economics Update Who is most exposed to an AI earnings bust? An AI earnings bust need not be synonymous with a macroeconomic bust. Some scenarios – such as falling AI prices or higher input costs – would mainly redistribute income between AI producers and users... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar’s recent drop We think the US dollar’s recent setbacks will prove temporary. But that view relies on continued US economic and equity market exceptionalism outweighing renewed uncertainty around the Fed and US... 4th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun. 2026) The slight narrowing of the trade deficit in June reflected a fall in imports of AI goods which helped to offset the big fall in energy exports. This suggests the second estimate of second-quarter GDP... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Jun. 2026) The continued rise in the trade surplus was largely attributable to a jump in gold exports, although there were still genuine pockets of strength in the external sector. This offset a drop in oil... 4th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Jul. 26) The jump in the ISM Manufacturing Index to a four-year high in July suggests that the sector gained momentum at the start of the third quarter, despite the rebound in oil prices. Although the prices... 3rd August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention, US-Iran pause (again), & US payrolls US economic policy has taken a strange turn but we think the underlying dynamism of the US economy and stock market will win out in the coming months. Events in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be... 3rd August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What explains the AI-related rebound? While investors’ faith in the AI narrative has been shaken over the past couple of months, the fact remains that there is no clear sign of demand for AI faltering. That may help to explain the rebound... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy continues to show solid momentum Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s muddled July FOMC press conference and the resulting gyrations in financial markets dominated this week’s headlines, diverting attention from data suggesting that... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly The Great Ottawa Shakedown continues Prime Minister Mark Carney's refusal to use energy exports as leverage against the US and decision to ditch yet another levy on US Big Tech shows Ottawa has succumbed to the pressure of watching an... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (May 2026) Strong Q2 brings rate hikes slightly closer The preliminary estimate of a 3.2% annualised rebound in GDP growth last quarter was even stronger than the Bank of Canada’s latest projection from the July... 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We really need to talk about Kevin now Market participants gave Fed Chair Warsh’s second press conference two thumbs down. If he is serious about taking guidance from market prices rather than dishing it out, a course correction is in... 30th July 2026 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A better month for payrolls We expect non-farm payrolls to have risen by a stronger 90,000 in July, but the risks lie toward the unemployment rate ticking back up to 4.3%. 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jun. 2026) The smaller-than-expected 0.13% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in June will be a welcome sight for Fed officials, though that still only translated to small decline in the annual rate to 3.3%, from... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2026) The slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5% annualised in the second quarter will not sway the Fed’s view that the economy is “expanding at solid pace”, given that final sales to private domestic purchasers... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook NOI growth to be key driver of winning and losing office markets The Southern metros are set to dominate the fastest-growing markets in terms of occupancy and rent growth with Miami, Dallas and Houston the top three markets in our rankings of NOI growth over 2026... 30th July 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed holds as markets struggle to get a handle on Warsh The Fed left its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% with almost zero changes to the statement, but three hawkish dissents from regional bank presidents Lorie Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth... 29th July 2026 · 3 mins read
