Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Oct) The weakness of GDP over October and November raises the chance that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter. Even accounting for the effect of strikes in various service sectors, that weakness... 23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Nov. 2025) Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Oct. 2025) The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Lies, damned lies, and US CPI statistics? The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 13 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Nov 2025) According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of 0.30% m/m over the... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Muddling through The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will... 18th December 2025 · 45 mins read
Canada Economics Update Declining population weighing on unemployment The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the... 18th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update How would Treasuries fare if the AI bubble burst? Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year... 18th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) Global property returns have improved in 2025, though performance in APAC and the US has lagged Europe. This divergence is set to continue in 2026. However, we expect performance in the US will... 17th December 2025 · 0 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook AI bubble could inflate more before it bursts We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some... 17th December 2025 · 30 mins read
Capital Daily Would an end to the AI boom drag down EM equities? Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. 17th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How the US economy is influencing cyclical stocks The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a... 16th December 2025 · 4 mins read
