Capital Daily Fed caution could be bad for Treasuries, good for the dollar We still think investors are expecting too many Fed cuts over the remainder of this year, and our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will strengthen. 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US Fed stands pat amid tariff uncertainty The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (May) The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar 2025) The widening in the trade deficit to a new record high in March was driven entirely by imports of pharmaceutical products as firms looked to front-run tariffs. This was broadly in-line with the BEA’s... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Mar. 2025) The surprise improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance in March, despite the imposition of US tariffs, was thanks to a surge in exports to other countries. Nonetheless, as the survey indicators of... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Apr) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.6 in April, from 50.8, is another illustration that most firms are able to shrug off the tariff chaos. Admittedly, at 51.3, our weighted composite of the... 5th May 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Resilient payrolls data point to higher Treasury yields The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Growth stronger than reported but weaker than believed The outsized surge in imports last quarter makes the negative Q1 GDP reading an inordinately poor reflection of the economy's strength. However, stripping out an artificially large jump in IT... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will... 2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr 2025) The healthy 177,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April and unchanged unemployment rate will reassure the Fed that there is no need to be hasty in lowering interest rates when it meets next week. Given... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Did the stock market just send another false recession signal? Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2025) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in April suggests that, while tariffs are weighing on the economy, they are not crushing it. And although the prices paid index is still some way below... 1st May 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone equity outperformance is on borrowed time We think the recent outperformance of euro-zone equities over US ones has run its course. 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Fed won’t cave to Trump pressure A contraction in GDP and near-flatlining in core PCE prices would usually be more than enough to persuade policymakers at the Fed to cut interest rates. Since those data precede the implementation of... 30th April 2025 · 7 mins read
