Global Markets Update Outlook for EM Asian equities grim, regardless of virus We wouldn’t be surprised if the recent recovery of EM equities continued over the coming weeks, with the stock markets of those countries that fell furthest following the outbreak of the coronavirus... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP cuts, more easing to come The Philippines (BSP) cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% today and with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain well within the BSP’s target, we expect more easing later this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to ease further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will the coronavirus affect Indonesia? Indonesia’s direct ties to China are relatively small, which makes the economy less vulnerable to the spread of the coronavirus than other countries in Emerging Asia. The main channel through which... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the coronavirus on EMs The coronavirus outbreak will result in much weaker growth in China in Q1 and has hit tourism sectors elsewhere. If factory closures in China are prolonged, the epidemic could start to cause more... 4th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid January PMIs yet to capture coronavirus hit The January batch of EM manufacturing PMIs generally held up well, but the surveys are yet to capture the economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak. Extended factory closures in China are likely... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How important is Chinese tourism? Chinese international tourist spending has surged over the past decade, which is one reason to think that the economic spillovers will be greater for the coronavirus than they were for SARS. But... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Korea Trade (Jan.) PMIs for Emerging Asia (ex. China) and Korean trade data were mostly unchanged in January, but neither give a good indication of how the coronavirus has hit the regional economy most recently. With... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus to hit EM growth Our Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth stabilised in Q4, but it will no doubt weaken sharply in Q1. The coronavirus has already dealt a significant blow to China’s economy, and other EMs... 31st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam inflation rises, Thai baht falls Inflation in Vietnam reached its highest rate since 2013 in January, but we doubt the central bank will respond by raising interest rates. Meanwhile, the Thai baht has dropped 4.5% against the US... 31st January 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Coronavirus to prompt further rate cuts Before the coronavirus hit, the latest data suggested the region’s economies had turned a corner. Our regional GDP Tracker nudged up slightly at the end of last year, while GDP figures for Taiwan... 30th January 2020 · 16 mins read
Asia Economics Update Tourism to drag regional growth lower as virus spreads A sharp fall in Chinese tourist arrivals will hit economic growth in Emerging Asia hard this quarter. The impact will be even more severe if the disruption spreads to the region’s industrial sectors. 28th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China’s coronavirus and the fallout for EMs There is no longer any doubt that China’s newly-identified coronavirus will hit its GDP growth in Q1. And other parts of Asia (notably Hong Kong and Thailand) will suffer a drop in Chinese tourism... 27th January 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Coronavirus to hit tourism With the number of new cases of the coronavirus continuing to increase, concern is rising across Asia over the potential economic impact. If the virus does continue to spread, the worst affected... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
