Asia Economics Weekly VAT cut in Sri Lanka, Japan-Korea trade spat The decision by Sri Lanka’s new president to cut the rate of VAT from 15% to 8% will provide a significant boost to the economy, but will put increased strain on the country’s fragile public finances... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more easing likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) left rates on hold today but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to stay subdued and inflation likely to remain weak, we have pencilled in one more 25bp rate... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack More stimulus on the way in Thailand Looser monetary and fiscal policy should help to drive a modest recovery in Thailand over the coming quarters, and we are revising our GDP growth forecast for next year up slightly. Figures released... 26th November 2019 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is a crisis brewing in Taiwan? A sharp rise in the US dollar assets of Taiwanese life insurance companies poses a major threat to the health of the country’s financial sector and could also have consequences for the stability of... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Recent positive data, Vietnam raises the retirement age Economic data published this week by Singapore and Korea, which are both good bellwethers for the rest of the region, add to evidence that the worst is now over for regional growth. Meanwhile, the... 22nd November 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update A slow recovery ahead GDP growth was either flat or picked up slightly in most parts of Emerging Asia last quarter, and we think regional growth will rise gradually over the coming year helped by a slow recovery in exports... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Revised) The revised estimate of Singapore GDP showed that the economy bounced back a little last quarter, but while we expect this recovery to continue in the quarters ahead, it is likely to be slow going. 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update More to coming export rebound than meets the eye Asian export growth should start to pick up over the coming months. However, the recovery will mainly reflect a more favourable base for comparison following the collapse in electronics exports at the... 19th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Thailand only managed to nudge up in Q3, and with global growth set to drag on exports we expect the economy to remain sluggish in the quarters ahead. 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Duterte health worries, Sri Lanka election If President Duterte is forced to leave office through ill health, Vice President Leni Robredo, who leads the main opposition party in the Philippines, would take over as president. We don’t know much... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Malaysia slowed in the third quarter, and we think the economy is likely to lose more steam in the quarters ahead due to headwinds from tighter fiscal policy and a weak external... 15th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines likely to cut again after today’s pause It was no surprise that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate at 4.00% today, and it is unlikely to adjust rates at its December meeting either. But with growth likely to... 14th November 2019 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
