Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2019) We estimate that net capital outflows from Emerging Markets fell to a six-month low in December, and they probably declined further at the start of this year. With global growth close to bottoming out... 23rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q4) GDP growth picked up pace again in the final quarter of last year, but with the big boost from government spending likely to fade this year, we think this will be as good as it gets. 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth to pick up despite China slowdown After a bad 2019, aggregate emerging market growth is likely to strengthen this year, driven by improvements in large EMs including Brazil, Russia and India. But recoveries will generally be... 22nd January 2020 · 24 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia likely to cut again this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today cut its policy rate from 3.00% to 2.75%, and with growth set to slow further over the next couple of quarters, we think the central bank will ease policy again later... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4, provisional) GDP growth rebounded more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the economy should continue to stage a recovery over the coming quarters. The strong outturn in Q4 means we no longer... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Assessing the impact of the new flu virus in Asia Fears are growing about the spread of a newly-identified coronavirus across Asia. In this Update we discuss the likely implications for the region’s economies. 21st January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2020 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year, assessing the implications for policymaking and economic... 20th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Phase One deal: the good and bad for EMs The latest data suggest that y/y EM export growth turned positive in December, having contracted for much of 2019. We think this will mark the start of a run of better EM export figures. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rupiah strength, palm oil worries Bank Indonesia is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, but the strong recent performance of the rupiah means further cuts are likely over the coming months. Meanwhile... 17th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea on hold, but more easing still likely The Bank of Korea (BoK) left policy unchanged today, but with the economy struggling for momentum and price pressures set to remain weak, we expect the Bank to resume its easing cycle later this year. 17th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Most countries set for gradual recovery, China to slow Most countries in Emerging Asia should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year helped by continued policy support. Several have announced expansionary budgets or fiscal stimulus packages, while... 16th January 2020 · 49 mins read
Asia Economics Update US-China trade deal, and its impact on the rest of Asia The signing of the Phase One trade deal is unlikely to spell the end of the trade war, and the disruption it has caused to Asian supply chains looks set to continue. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to continue to support EM equities We think that the returns from emerging market (EM) equities in 2020 won’t be anywhere as good as in 2019. While this view is partly premised on our forecast that earnings growth will generally be... 13th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lower for longer: EM interest rates after the golden era This decade is likely to be marked by slower growth and softer inflation in emerging markets. One consequence is that interest rates will probably be lower than most currently anticipate. 13th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan: what to expect from Tsai’s second term and beyond The two key economic challenges facing Tsai Ing-wen in her second and final term as Taiwan’s president are the deteriorating demographic outlook and the long-term decline in productivity growth. A... 13th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan election, Thailand’s currency dilemma Given her huge lead in the opinion polls, it will come as a major surprise if Tsai Ing-wen is not re-elected for a second and final term as Taiwan’s president on Saturday. However, whether Tsai can... 10th January 2020 · 6 mins read
