Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to start cutting rates by year-end High interest rates and weak export demand will weigh on the region’s economies this year, and we expect below-trend and below-consensus growth in most countries in 2023. The exceptions are China... 24th March 2023 · 35 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise hike in Taiwan, but cuts still likely in late 2023 In a surprise move, Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today raised its main policy rate by 12.5bps (to 1.875%), but with the economy struggling badly and inflationary pressures set to ease further, we think... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: one more hike left in the tightening cycle The central bank of the Philippines (BSP) today slowed the pace of tightening as it raised its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%), and hinted that the tightening cycle was now approaching an end... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: What does the recent banking sector turmoil mean for Asia? 30th March 2023, 9:00AM BST Although the recent flare-up of financial stability concerns has been a US-Europe story, its reverberations could be global.
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: Difficult times ahead despite IMF deal The deal announced yesterday between Sri Lanka and the IMF should eventually pave the way for a sustained economic recovery. However, the tough conditions being imposed as part of the agreement mean... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor EMs, in general, don’t appear to have suffered large capital outflows over the past 10 days or so amid the turmoil in the global banking sector. But some countries with large current account deficits... 20th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Asia continue to ride out the global storm? The impact of the current turmoil on Emerging Asia has so far been relatively small, and most currencies have appreciated against the US dollar over the past week. Large current account surpluses mean... 17th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no further rate hikes Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and signalled that with inflation falling back more quickly than expected, rates would be left on hold over the coming months. In... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP figures released today for Sri Lanka highlight the scale of the economic damage caused by last year’s political crisis and debt default. While there are some tentative signs that the worst may be... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut to support struggling economy Vietnam’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates late yesterday as it aims to support the struggling economy which has been hit hard by the downturn in global demand and problems in the... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT forecast change, welcome progress in Sri Lanka Inflation in Thailand is falling sharply and is likely to drop back to the central bank’s 1-3% target by May. With the economy struggling, we are taking out the rate hike we originally had pencilled... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update How will Asia respond to a more hawkish Fed? For most economies in Emerging Asia it will be local factors, not the actions of the US Fed, that determine the next moves by the region’s central banks. Given the poor outlook for economic growth in... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
