Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 10th Mar.) Korean trade data suggest that the external sector will have its strongest quarter since 2018. With semiconductor demand set to remain elevated, at least in the short term, exports are likely to... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus, Philippines inflation Korea today announced that it was stepping up its support for the economy with a new supplementary budget worth 15trn won (around 0.8% of GDP). Government spending this year is now set to be 3% higher... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Negara Malaysia set to remain on hold Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, and we have taken out the cut we had pencilled in for this year. However, with the economic recovery likely to be slow... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: monetary easing will depend on currency The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left policy on hold today amid continued volatility in global financial markets. Given the poor outlook for the economy, the CBSL will want to resume its easing... 4th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February PMI readings suggest that manufacturing sectors improved further in most places in Asia. Global demand for electronics should continue to support the sector for at least the next few months. 2nd March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Financial market sell-off, impact of Biden stimulus The sell-off in Asian financial markets gathered pace today on the back of concerns that President Biden’s fiscal stimulus package could prompt the US Fed to start raising interest rates. We don’t... 26th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about a repeat of the “taper tantrum”? Fears of a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum” look wide of the mark. But even if there was a return to the financial market turmoil of eight years ago, Asian economies are much better placed to cope. 25th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia: current account shift reduces external risks Indonesia has seen a dramatic shift in its current account position over the past year, with recently published data showing that the country recorded its second consecutive quarterly surplus in the... 24th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is the slow vaccine rollout a cause for concern? Asia’s vaccine rollout has got off to a slow start. This is not a big concern in countries that have contained the virus and where social distancing is not a drag on growth such as Taiwan and China... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st – 20th Feb.) Korean exports are performing very strongly so far this month, even accounting for the seasonal distortions from the Lunar New Year. This strength is likely to continue in the short term at least, as... 22nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices We recently launched our new service, The Long Run, which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. One of the key points that comes out from the forecasts is that Emerging Asia is set... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China’s “sorpasso” Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. The most likely scenario is that slowing productivity growth and a... 18th February 2021 · 3 mins read
