Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Downbeat trade data for Korea and weak regional manufacturing PMIs suggest that GDP data for last quarter are likely to be subdued again in most places, but there were some signs of improvement at the... 1st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Consumer Prices (Sep.) Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping further into negative territory in September, we don’t think there is much risk of a damaging period of prolonged deflation. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: protectionism key risk to growth outlook Data released over the weekend suggest that Vietnam grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, and we think it will remain one of the fastest growing economies in the region. The possibility that... 30th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Singapore data, loosening in the Philippines The poor recent performance of manufacturing in Singapore increases the chance that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will loosen policy aggressively at its meeting next month. Meanwhile, in... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Fiscal policy being loosened, Indonesia an exception The Indonesian government’s budget for 2020 came a step closer to being passed this week after the parliament’s budgetary committee approved President Joko Widodo’s spending plans for the coming year... 24th September 2019 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More good news than bad For all the talk of a global slowdown, the incoming data from the emerging world have been encouraging. Having bottomed out in Q2, GDP growth held steady at around 3.5% y/y at the start of Q3. EM... 20th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia corruption concerns, new Pakistan forecasts Indonesia’s parliament has approved changes to how the country’s anti-corruption body (KPK) is governed, a move which could weaken its powers to investigate new corruption allegations. Meanwhile... 20th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stabilise, but outlook poor EM exports stabilised in July and August but, with the latest round of US-China tariffs yet to feed through and global growth subdued, we expect EM export growth to remain weak in the coming quarters. 18th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Interest rate cutting cycle has further to run Weak economic growth and low inflation mean Emerging Asia’s rate cutting cycle has further to run. In contrast, the consensus and financial markets think the easing cycle will soon end in many... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut, but further easing unlikely Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today is something of a surprise given that growth appears to be holding up well at the moment. Given the decent outlook for the economy, we don’t think the... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong baht, more RCEP delays Despite the worries of policymakers, there is little evidence that the strong baht is to blame for the weakness of exports. While Thai exports have struggled this year, they have performed broadly in... 13th September 2019 · 8 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still don’t look low The valuations of EM assets have fallen significantly from their peaks in this cycle around the start of last year, but remain above their averages since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In our view... 12th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia policy rate on hold, cut likely in November The dovish statement which accompanied today’s decision by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to leave its policy rate on hold at 3.00% suggests that the central bank is leaving the door open to further... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation in Korea, rate cut likely in the Philippines Despite headline inflation in Korea dropping into negative territory in August, we don’t think there is much risk of a prolonged period of deflation. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in inflation last month in... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
