Capital Daily New German government may affect BTPs more than Bunds We think the new German Government will not have a significant impact on the outlook for German Bunds. But at the margin, the uncertainty surrounding its stance in the upcoming negotiations on reforms... 8th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash? South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In... 3rd December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Omicron & tightening cycles, Turkey into the unknown While a lot is still unknown about the Omicron variant, we don’t think it will prevent central banks from delivering further large interest rate hikes - Poland will be a case in point next week, where... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Omicron, tourism and the oil market Low vaccine coverage and large tourism sectors mean that the non-Gulf economies are particularly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the drop in oil prices and the... 2nd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Omicron & Powell present risks to our Treasury yield view The spread of the Omicron variant and Fed Chair Powell’s latest comments to Congress both present some downside risks to our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end next year some way above... 1st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack MENA and the Omicron risks The Middle East and North African economies are potentially among the most vulnerable to the fallout from the Omicron strain of COVID-19. The North African economies as well as Lebanon and Jordan have... 30th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron on course to defeat far-right challengers The confirmation earlier today that far-right pundit Eric Zemmour will stand in France’s presidential election next spring comes as no surprise given his rise in the polls. But French President... 30th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Omicron tests China’s zero-COVID strategy The global spread of a more transmissible COVID variant is a particular challenge for a country trying to remain COVID-free. But after nearly two years of success suppressing infections domestically... 29th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, oil prices and the Omicron variant News of the “Omicron” variant of the coronavirus may have hit both inflation compensation and oil prices recently, but we suspect the correlation between the two will be weaker over the next couple of... 29th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron: implications for the euro-zone It is still very early days in assessing the effects of the latest Covid variant, but we suspect that Omicron has the capacity to cause a new decline in economic activity in the coming months but that... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
