Europe Economics Weekly Austria lockdown casts shadow over rest of euro-zone The “full lockdown” in Austria announced earlier today is a response to the rapid deterioration in the Covid situation there and we estimate that it could knock around 1.5% off the country’s GDP in Q4... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vaccine progress, external turnaround in Indonesia After a slow start, countries across South East Asia are now making encouraging progress with vaccine rollouts. The rise in coverage should reduce the need for further lockdowns and set the stage for... 19th November 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Home sales on the cusp of a rebound New home sales have dropped by a fifth since March, a similar-sized slump to those seen during the previous two housing downturns. With policy now turning more supportive, high-frequency data suggest... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Automobile sector set for swift rebound While October’s trade data showed good exports still depressed by the recent collapse in domestic car production, there is growing anecdotal evidence that the auto sector is on the cusp of a rapid... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A look ahead to Chile’s election The frontrunners in Sunday’s presidential election in Chile, Gabriel Boric and José Antonio Kast, hold different views on the desired size of the state in the economy, but both advocate relatively... 18th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid cases and inflation on the rise Inflation releases in Germany and the US this week highlighted how price pressures are still weaker in the euro-zone. Next week, we will get the full breakdown of euro-zone inflation in October, which... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Troubled Brexit waters ahead With speculation rising that the UK will trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the big risk is that relations between the UK and the EU sour to such an extent that parts of the whole UK... 11th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia unrest, Kuwaiti government, Oman fuel prices Escalating social unrest in Tunisia and opposition to fiscal reforms from the powerful UGTT labour union will make it more difficult for President Saied to push through much-needed fiscal reforms and... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s election: approaching a fork in the road The ruling Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition is likely to lose some of its power in congress in Argentina’s midterm elections on Sunday. Policymaking could subsequently go in one of two ways. Our... 10th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
