Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 We will be publishing our Key Calls for 2022 in due course but, in our last Weekly of 2021, we take a look at what we got right and wrong this year. – This will be the last India Economics Weekly for... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi budget, Fed and the Gulf, Tunisian politics Saudi Arabia’s 2022 Budget revealed that the government plans to cut spending in order to run a budget surplus for the first time since 2013. But the true fiscal stance is being muddied by an... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Government yet to deliver pre-election spending boost The government unveiled only modest increases in spending in today’s fiscal update. And while the unemployment rate has now reached levels where the Treasurer has pledged to start repairing the public... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics December looking dismal, but lockdown the real risk Reports that the surge in Omicron COVID-19 cases is causing some people to stay away from work, schools, pubs and restaurants increases the downside risks to our December and January GDP forecasts... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Omi-chronicles from South Africa and beyond South African officials seem to be pushing vaccine take-up to curb the latest Omicron-induced virus outbreak rather than tightening restrictions on activity. But with pressure building on the health... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics The hit from “Plan B”, the MPC and better news on shortages The government’s recently-imposed “Plan B” COVID-19 restrictions mean there is a good chance that the economy contracted in December. If the pressure on the NHS increases, restrictions might be... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia moving closer to digital Aussie dollar The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian government are keen to explore the benefits of a retail central bank digital currency. But with pilot projects yet to start, we doubt that an eAud will... 9th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily New German government may affect BTPs more than Bunds We think the new German Government will not have a significant impact on the outlook for German Bunds. But at the margin, the uncertainty surrounding its stance in the upcoming negotiations on reforms... 8th December 2021 · 6 mins read
