Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt yields to rebound, economics point a Lionesses win If our forecasts that Bank Rate will rise to 3.00% and that high inflation will prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates during the coming recession both prove right, then 10-year gilt... 29th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Gazprom turns the screws Gazprom’s announcement this week that it is reducing the supply of gas through Nord Stream 1 to only a fifth of its normal capacity has pushed European natural gas prices up once again and threatens... 29th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 2022) The chunky increase in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was due to the re-opening of the services sector which has masked a deterioration in most other parts of the economy. We expect a triple whammy of high... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) With headline and core inflation rising more than expected yet again, the case for the ECB to pursue further aggressive tightening of interest rates is unassailable. A 50bp hike in September now looks... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Loonie unlikely to have big bearing on policy outlook Governor Tiff Macklem has voiced concern about the inflationary impact of the loonie, but we doubt that a modest fall would prevent the Bank of Canada from pausing its tightening before the Federal... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jul.) The bigger-than-expected decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in July adds to a growing list of indicators pointing to activity slowing markedly in July. With the region’s gas supply now... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
BoE Watch Stepping up the fight We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to step up its fight against high inflation at its meeting on Thursday 4 th August by raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bps), from 1.25% to 1.75%... 28th July 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening rebound set to slow Activity has bounced back from lockdowns but China’s economic recovery will become more challenging from here on as exports turn from tailwind to headwind and the property downturn deepens. Policy... 28th July 2022 · 22 mins read
China Chart Pack Housing crisis flares up again The mortgage boycotts are a double threat to developers and to the housing market. They have drawn attention to the problem of cash-strapped developers being unable to complete properties that they... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s economic woes mount For a major net oil exporter, Nigeria’s worsening economic struggles in the current high oil price environment are striking. Low oil production, which was 30% below the country’s OPEC+ quota in June... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily For EM financial markets, bad news is just bad news We expect weak global growth to keep the pressure on EM sovereign bonds over the rest of 2022, and think that most EM currencies will weaken against the US dollar over this period. 27th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Weaker new home sales to drag down construction The extent of the downturn in the housing market and broader residential investment will determine whether the economy enters a recession in the next 12 months, and in that respect there has been some... 26th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
