Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Kishida dissolves parliament, firms look to seniors The ruling LDP appears to be bracing for a slimming down of its lower house majority in the general election that will take place on 31 st October. That would make tangible structural reform progress... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack Dollar reaches a crossroad The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. 11th October 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economic Outlook Recovery enters a slower phase Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these... 11th October 2021 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling deal may only delay the inevitable The entrenched positions of both sides suggest the deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December may only delay rather than avert a crisis. And in that scenario, we doubt that the Treasury minting a... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
