Frontier Markets Wrap Covax delays cast a dark cloud Extended delays to vaccine supply from India to the Covax facility will keep rollout in many Frontier Markets stuck in first gear. Social distancing measures will have to stay in place for longer... 21st May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Inflation in euro-zone to remain lower than in US Price pressures are building in the US and we think they will be longer-lasting than the Fed expects, but it is a very different story in the euro-zone. A weaker economic recovery and a flat Phillips... 20th May 2021 · 17 mins read
Asia Economics Update Learning to live with lockdowns Social distancing and the imposition of new restrictions in response to a surge in infections are weighing on economic activity across the region. But with manufacturing and construction sites... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am: taking stock of the latest virus developments The latest COVID-19 outbreaks in Latin America have passed their peak and the near-term outlook is improving. But, with the probable exception of Chile, the latest developments reinforce the message... 18th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Slow start to jab rollout may come back to bite Europe While the vaccine rollout in Europe has finally kicked into gear, the legacy of the slow start means the EU is more exposed than the UK or the US if the Indian variant spreads quickly amongst the... 18th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB climate rhetoric to run ahead of action The ECB will make a big splash about climate change when it concludes its monetary strategy review this autumn. In practice, it is likely to make progress in addressing climate-related risks in the... 18th May 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the macro implications of the “Polish Deal” The “Polish Deal” outlined by the ruling Law and Justice party over the weekend strengthens the shift in policy since 2015 towards higher social welfare spending and support for families. Fiscal... 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: outbreak to weigh on consumption The first major outbreak of COVID-19 in Taiwan has triggered the first significant restrictions on activity. Consumer spending will suffer, but the rest of the economy should still perform strongly. 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The latest on the virus and vaccines The sharp fall in virus cases and increase in the rate of vaccinations since March means that a sustained economic recovery in Central and Eastern Europe looks set to begin over the coming months. But... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s census: the good, the bad and the ugly After a month-long delay, the key results from China’s once-a-decade census were published today. They weren’t as bad earlier media reports had suggested – the population continued to rise at much the... 11th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update China & US censuses: don’t count on catch-up The 2020 US and China censuses add to the reasons why we think China will struggle to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s birth rate has continued to fall and the population will... 11th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Colombia’s fiscal drama Recent protests have pushed Colombia’s government away from the fiscal reforms that are needed to reduce the public debt ratio in the coming years. It’s therefore likely that the sovereign will lose... 10th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus outbreaks While the high numbers of COVID-19 cases will drag on the recovery in many in EMs in Q2, there are – at least outside India – encouraging signs that the worst of the current waves may be over in most... 6th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lessons from the UAE’s vaccine rollout The UAE has been one of the global leaders in its vaccine rollout thanks to the aggressive procurement of vaccines, numerous vaccination centres and wide eligibility. Containment measures have been... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spill-overs from India’s COVID-19 crisis The impact of India’s COVID-19 crisis on other EMs through normal economic channels such as trade and financial links should be manageable. The more serious impact will come through delays to vaccine... 5th May 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Apr.) India’s PMI readings for April suggest that economic activity has held up fairly well despite the latest set of containment measures. But with virus cases still extremely high, tighter and wider... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
