Europe Economics Focus Pandemic has improved Italy’s debt dynamics The COVID-19 crisis has led to something of a paradox: Italy’s public debt ratio has risen, but the probability of default has fallen. That’s largely because BTP yields are likely to stay far lower... 11th February 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions about a Draghi-led government The markets have reacted well to the news that Mario Draghi has been tasked with forming a new government. It is hard to think of a better candidate to lead Italy through a crisis, but we doubt that... 4th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Update A guide to political events in 2021 In this Update we take a look at the important elections and political events that are set to take place across Asia over the coming year as well as any potential flashpoints, assessing the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook New outbreaks key risk to above-consensus forecasts Our forecasts for GDP growth across Emerging Asia in 2021 are much higher than consensus expectations across the board, but fresh outbreaks in a number of countries mean the risks to our forecasts are... 18th January 2021 · 36 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook A weak Q1, but vaccines to drive strong recovery Prolonged containment measures mean that activity in Emerging Europe will remain depressed for longer than we had previously expected. But the region is well-placed to access and distribute vaccines... 14th January 2021 · 27 mins read
US Economics Update Democrats’ Senate wins not a gamechanger With Democrats picking up both Georgia Senate seats in yesterday’s run-off elections, President-elect Joe Biden will have a much easier time confirming his picks for cabinet positions and the chances... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Pandemic will not be the death of cities The pandemic – and the associated increase in working from home – may cause a fundamental shift in the way that cities function in future. But this shift will not necessarily trigger a more... 5th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: demographic “time bomb” to weigh on growth Korea’s population last year shrank for the first time in its history, underlining the seriousness of the demographic “time bomb” facing the country. The poor demographic outlook is the key reason why... 5th January 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack And the winner of 2020 is… COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the world economy, which is set to contract the most since WWII this year. China has not been immune – it is on track for its slowest growth since the Mao era – but set... 23rd December 2020 · 12 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
