India Economics Update State election results fail to move the needle Results of the state elections that have been taking place over the past couple of months are unlikely to have undermined the BJP’s willingness to implement difficult economic reforms, particularly... 3rd May 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Population pressures, supply constraints biting There is mounting evidence that supply constraints are feeding price pressures across manufacturing in China. Producer price inflation is about to jump to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the statistics... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Takeaways from MbS’s interview Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave a rare TV interview this week and hinted that some of the government’s recent fiscal tightening may be unwound, which would boost the economic... 29th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s population may have peaked China’s census has revealed the first population decline since the People’s Republic was founded, according to the FT. If this is confirmed and the beginning of a trend, China’s challenge in... 27th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near the front of the EM pack Third virus waves and the slow vaccine rollout will weigh on near-term growth in the region, but we expect a strong recovery in activity to take place later this year and in 2022. Our forecasts for... 26th April 2021 · 29 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) Following weather-related disruption in February, new home sales jumped in March to close to a 15-year high. A gradual rise in mortgage interest rates this year will weigh on demand to some extent... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and bumpy path to recovery Severe COVID-19 outbreaks across Latin America will put a brake on the region’s economic recovery in Q2. While we’re more optimistic than most that the rollout of vaccines will boost output later this... 22nd April 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi privatisation, UAE TESS extended, Tunisian politics The Saudi government is speeding up its privatisation drive, which will help to finance the budget deficit. But the continued reliance on the Public Investment Fund to drive investment risks... 22nd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Israel’s vaccine success to drive strong recovery Israel has been the world leader in the vaccination race and the early evidence is that the rapid re-opening of the economy has driven a strong rebound in activity, particularly in services sectors... 22nd April 2021 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Implications of a trade war with China New Zealand is playing with fire by criticising the human rights situation in China’s Xinjiang province. While China is highly dependent on New Zealand’s flagship dairy, meat and logs exports, it... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update High lumber costs won’t cut starts or boost prices Surging lumber prices have led to delays in housing starts and an increase in some new home prices. But, while we expect lumber prices to remain relatively high over the next couple of years, the... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Resurgent infections threaten recovery Asia’s emergence from the pandemic has been threatened recently by a resurgence in infections across parts of the region. Most of South Asia, the Philippines and Thailand have had to introduce new... 21st April 2021 · 34 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Higher mortgage rates to cool red hot housing market After a bumper second half of 2020, housing market activity will lose steam in 2021 as higher mortgage interest rates and record low inventory weigh on home sales. House price growth will also fall... 19th April 2021 · 17 mins read
