Japan Economics Weekly Kansai emergency looming, jabs to pick up soon The continued surge in daily infections makes it highly likely that states of emergency will be declared again for at least the hard hit prefectures of Osaka and Hyogo. If the spread intensifies... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest virus developments in EMs Virus outbreaks have taken a sharp turn for the worse across several large EMs – including India and much of Latin America – and look likely to hold back economic recoveries in Q2. The recent... 14th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Focus Taiwan in the cross hairs Ongoing disruption to global auto production has highlighted the extent to which semiconductors have become an essential input in products that aren’t traditionally considered electronics and also how... 13th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the election surprises in Ecuador & Peru The surprising victory for conservative Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador’s presidential election increases the chances that public debt will be put onto a sustainable path, and will probably boost the... 12th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Mobility data have weakened in many parts of the world in recent weeks as virus numbers either remain high or continue to climb, risking restrictions staying in place for even longer. The latest data... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Ecuador votes, Banxico’s doves, rising virus cases Voters head to the polls in Peru and Ecuador on Sunday which could lead to a populist shift in both countries. In the former, political risks may have a growing adverse impact on the economy and... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Moon eclipsed, AstraZeneca uncertainty Wednesday’s landslide defeat for President Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) in key mayoral elections in Korea suggest that it faces an uphill battle to retain the presidency in next year’s vote. Defeat... 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly UK variant taking hold in Osaka, July snap election? Signs the recent surge in infections in the Osaka area is being driven by more infectious strains raises the risk of more draconian restrictions being needed to break the fourth wave of coronavirus... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: infections, vaccines and the recovery While Chile is currently battling with a severe wave of virus cases, we remain cautiously optimistic about the resilience of the economy in Q2, and the prospect of a vaccine-related boost to output... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook Surge in infections a risk to the recovery The economic recovery has progressed well over recent months and as things currently stand growth is on course to be stronger than the consensus expects this year. But the recent surge in virus cases... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Update Easing in Denmark is the exception, not the rule The comparative success that the Danish government has had in handling COVID has allowed it to start to re-open the economy, despite the painfully slow progress on the vaccine front. Most economies in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update What to expect from Vietnam’s new leadership The unveiling of Vietnam’s new leadership team earlier this week contained no new surprises, and we are not expecting any significant changes in policy direction. The economy is well-placed to meet... 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Government troubles raise stakes in German election The broad consensus among Germany’s major parties means that September’s election will not lead to big macroeconomic policy changes. But with the Greens and/or SDP set to gain influence, fiscal policy... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Surge in virus cases a growing threat to recovery The rise in new COVID-19 infections to a six-month high yesterday has predominantly been limited to one state. But there are signs that the virus is spreading rapidly to other parts of the country and... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
