India Economics Weekly NPL floodgates open, new FX forecasts, state elections With the Supreme Court this week lifting its ban on banks classifying delinquent loans as non-performing, the last major extra-ordinary banking sector measure has been unwound and recorded NPLs are... 26th March 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update FDI outlook remains upbeat Parliament’s approval this week of a loosening of restrictions on FDI in the insurance sector will not have a significant macro impact, but it provides reassurance that FDI reform remains a priority... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus developments pushing back the recovery The renewed surge in virus cases and tightening of restrictions across Central Europe will deal a heavy blow to the recovery in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, slow vaccine rollouts mean that... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update The outlook for deglobalisation We argued some time ago that globalisation had peaked and a period of deglobalisation might even lie ahead. It is now becoming clearer what to expect – namely a type of regionalism driven by the... 16th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus The 14th Five-Year Plan China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers... 15th March 2021 · 27 mins read
India Economics Focus State elections could brighten reform outlook The upcoming state elections in India will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be important in... 10th March 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Lula ruling, Brazil’s debt problem and the BCB The annulment of left-wing former President Lula’s criminal convictions has significantly increased the likelihood of a looser fiscal stance, which could put Brazil’s public debt back onto an... 9th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Border closure to knock 2% off GDP by end-2022 The slow progress in rolling out vaccines in New Zealand means that its border may only be reopened by the end of this year. With net migration boosting population growth by around 1%-pt per annum... 8th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Focus Another decade of negative real interest rates The equilibrium level of real interest rates in the global economy may not remain quite as low as of late, but we expect any rise to be gradual and small. With policymakers at the same time taking a... 24th February 2021 · 28 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The Asian century, little to fear from higher oil prices We recently launched our new service, The Long Run, which includes detailed forecasts out to 2050 for 58 economies. One of the key points that comes out from the forecasts is that Emerging Asia is set... 19th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will Draghi reform the euro-zone? Mario Draghi’s reputation and large majority put him in a strong position to promote euro-zone reform and he may have some successes in areas such as banking union and fiscal rules. But he will be... 16th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
