Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Price and wage expectations continue to rise The latest CFIB Business Barometer shows that, as the re-opening process got underway, firms’ selling price expectations surged in June. Firms now expect to raise their prices by an average of 4.7%... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly August rate hike in Korea, Indonesia outbreak We were already more hawkish that the consensus in expecting a rate hike in Korea this year, but recent comments by the central bank and strong economic data mean we are shifting forward our forecast... 25th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s NT outlook not as dire as many think Argentina’s GDP expanded by a stronger-than-expected 2.6% q/q in Q1 and, while the recent third virus wave has dragged down activity in Q2, we are sticking with our above-consensus forecast of 8%... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Third wave fears grow Worries about a third wave of COVID-19 in the region have intensified in the past month and the tightening of lockdown measures in some countries – most notably South Africa – will weigh on recoveries... 24th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update Four key takeaways from Suga’s first big-boned policy PM Suga unveiled his administration’s first mid- to long-term growth strategy – known as the “big-boned policy” – on Friday. While most themes have been carried over from the Abe administration, PM... 24th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA Virus numbers have fallen in the past few months in the MENA region and a rapid vaccine rollout should allow most of the Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, to lift restrictions further over the... 21st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fractious politics don’t change Swedish macro picture The passing of this morning’s “no confidence” vote in Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has plunged Sweden back into a period of political purgatory. While the political outlook is unclear, the... 21st June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Moscow’s virus surge, MNB and CNB ready for lift-off A surge in virus infections and tightening of containment measures in Moscow this week, coming alongside very low vaccine coverage, threatens to weigh on activity and derail Russia's economic recovery... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update No-Frexit Le Pen would still be a step back for France Marine Le Pen’s RN party is likely to do well in French regional elections this month, a key test ahead of next year’s presidential election. A Le Pen presidency would no longer entail a “Frexit” but... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hajj limited again, Iran election, Dubai property The Saudi government’s confirmation that the Hajj pilgrimage will be extremely limited this year will weigh on the Kingdom’s economic recovery. Elsewhere, the likely victory for hardliner Ebrahim... 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A fresh look at Chile’s virus and vaccine trends Chile’s renewed lockdown measures provide further evidence that its rapid vaccination programme has a lot further to run to quash the virus. The good news is that the economy seems resilient to... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Filling gaps: vaccine supply in SSA & electricity in SA Leaders of G7 nations meeting this week are ramping up efforts to provide more vaccines to the developing world, which – along with the prospect of larger supplies from China – could give a lift to... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly US-China rivalry: industrial policy, vaccine diplomacy The US Senate took a leaf out of China’s industrial policy playbook this week by passing USICA, a bill that earmarks $190bn in federal funding for strategic sectors and bears striking similarities... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
