India Chart Pack Inflation has now peaked Amid the ongoing debate over inflation in a post-pandemic world, one thing that does appear clear is that near-term price pressures in India have peaked. Consumer price inflation held steady in June... 21st July 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Focus The implications for China and the world of eCNY In this Focus we detail what is known about China’s central bank digital currency and analyse its implications for China and the world. The Focus is fully updated to incorporate the latest publicly... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Rates to remain low as virus disruption worsens Surging infections across South East Asia and the slow progress of vaccine rollouts mean that COVID-19 will continue to cause widespread economic disruption across large parts of the region until at... 20th July 2021 · 34 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Surge in inflation won’t be sustained Our forecast that COVID-19 won’t significantly reduce potential supply means that the economy can run a bit hotter for longer without generating the persistent rise in inflation that would require... 20th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Not all doom and gloom Virus outbreaks are easing in much of Latin America which should support activity in the near term. And while vaccination coverage is still weak in most of the region, suggesting there is still a... 19th July 2021 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Vaccine rollout has yet to alter health situation With Sydney tightening its lockdown and the one in Victoria set to be extended, we now expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% q/q in Q3. The vaccine rollout isn’t advanced enough yet to ease the medical... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Home sales to ease even as mortgage rates stay low Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic... 15th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics New guidance will set the bar higher for rate hikes The ECB will set out next week what its new strategy implies for its monetary policy. Having nudged up the target to a symmetrical 2% and stressed that it will tolerate some overshooting, the... 15th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Bank tapers its asset purchases again The Bank of Canada’s decision to continue tapering its asset purchases today came as little surprise and we continue to expect the Bank to bring the QE program to a close by the end of this year. With... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics A whiff of stagflation Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3%... 13th July 2021 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa There is clearly a lot of uncertainty over how the protests in South Africa in recent days will develop but there are reasons to think that the impact on economic activity will be towards the milder... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
