Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s political noise, strong inflation numbers again Political upheaval in Poland this week after a coalition partner pulled out of the government has increased the possibility of elections before 2023 and raises concerns that the Polish Deal may... 13th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Economic fortunes changing in Zambia and South Africa? This week Zambians voted in tightly contested elections and, while the results have not yet been announced, one way or another it looks like fiscal policy will be tightened. Meanwhile in South Africa... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics June’s resilience won’t last as virus disruptions hit The 1.0% m/m rise in GDP in June was an impressive result. But we suspect that GDP growth in Q3 will be closer to 2.0% q/q than the 2.9% q/q forecast by the Bank of England. And we still think that... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Delta wave may have peaked but it won’t be the last Aggressive containment measures, mass testing and quarantine appear already to be bringing China’s Delta outbreak under control. The economic cost should be fleeting – but it will be felt beyond China... 13th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German election getting complicated The latest opinion polls suggest that Germany’s election, on 26 th September, will be a close-run affair, with many coalition governments still potentially feasible. Whether or not the Greens are part... 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics What can we learn from Iceland’s virus spike? The recent spike in virus cases in Iceland has raised eyebrows given the country’s high degree of vaccination coverage. Although the cause of the surge is unclear, Iceland’s experience appears to... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Long Run Update Implications of living with COVID Many countries are increasingly well-placed to ‘live with COVID’ and will be able to avoid the need for occasional lockdowns. However, this requires reaching and maintaining a high level of immunity... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Outlook darkens The disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from the IMF later this month is a boon for some Frontier Markets that face very high borrowing costs. But beyond this, it is hard to find many... 10th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Delta disruption spreads as vaccine exports soar Escalating efforts to contain China’s first Delta variant outbreak will hurt some sectors of the economy. But if they are as successful as they have been in the past, the overall damage will be... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: new cabinet, old problems; SDRs no bonanza This week’s cabinet re-shuffle in South Africa has hit the rand and, while the new finance minister appears to be an investor-friendly choice, it will be a tall order to stabilise the public debt... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
US Economics How could Biden reshape the Fed? Whether President Joe Biden chooses to reappoint Jerome Powell or to nominate Lael Brainard to be the next Fed Chair, it is unlikely in itself to have much impact on the near-term outlook for monetary... 5th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
