Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s credit bubble deflates Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that credit bubbles across Latin America have started to deflate. So far at least, this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems for the region’s... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria’s banks casting a smaller shadow over the economy Austria’s banking sector is still struggling with the legacy of the 2008 crisis when its large exposure to Emerging Europe brought it to the brink of collapse. However, in its current state, with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Oct.) The ECB’s October Bank Lending Survey (BLS) revealed a slight loosening of credit conditions for firms and stronger demand for loans. It also gave positive signals about the effects of QE on bank... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing credit conditions are beginning to boost FTB numbers Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch QE expansion coming soon if not this month Recent comments from Governing Council members suggest that the ECB may not be ready to increase its policy support when it meets on 22nd October. But President Draghi is likely to reiterate concerns... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth accelerated to a nine-month high in September. Although this will add to concerns about the trajectory of Chinese debt levels, in the short-run it will nonetheless be supportive of... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The doubling of the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet since the launch of QQE has contributed to a strong rise in the money supply and a pick-up in bank lending. With lending rates near record-lows, we... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that over a quarter of a trillion dollars flowed out of EMs in the third quarter. This was largely due to China, although there are signs that the pace of capital... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) The Q3 Credit Conditions Survey reported the strongest pick-up in secured residential credit availability in two years. But at the same time, the availability of credit for the commercial sector... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What can the RBI do to get banks to lower interest rates? Having cut the repo rate by 125bp this year, the RBI has shifted its focus to ensuring that banks pass on these rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high levels of bad debt mean that the banking... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Does the increase in credit spreads presage an economic slowdown? 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
