Japan Economics Weekly Will negative rates lower bank lending rates? The introduction of a negative interest rate on a small portion of excess reserves has already reduced corporate bond yields, and we think that banks may also lower lending rates somewhat. However... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s household borrowing figures will not have eased mounting concerns regarding rapid unsecured credit growth and the sustainability of the consumer recovery. However, we do... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jan.) & Money and Credit (Dec.) The January Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey showed that the sector started 2016 on a slightly better footing. But with headwinds to the sector remaining, any near-term improvement is likely to be... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Loan rumours leave key questions unanswered A reported US$3.5bn loan from the World Bank and AfDB would only cover about 15% of Nigeria’s gross external financing requirement. In any case, a loan would come with politically difficult conditions... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone monetary data suggested that money and lending growth in the currency union has peaked, adding to the case for the ECB to loosen monetary policy significantly in March. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How sustainable are public debt burdens? Over the past few years, the governments of most advanced economies have made a lot of progress in repairing the damage caused to their public finances by the global financial crisis. The majority... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit not a concern yet The pick-up in unsecured borrowing growth is starting to ring alarm bells, but we do not think that this poses a major threat – at least not yet. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will higher corporate credit spreads produce a spike in property yields? In view of their strong past relationship, the latest jump in corporate bond yields could be a sign of an imminent turning point for European property markets. However, we are inclined to look through... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can we believe the ECB this time? We said after December’s “Draghi disappointment” that we would take future verbal policy steers from the ECB with a healthy pinch of salt. But there are some good reasons to expect the President and... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB stokes expectations again... this time it must meet them The ECB signalled firmly today that further policy loosening is imminent. While we are wary of putting too much faith in its communications after last month’s disappointment, there are good reasons to... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slowdown in bank lending to continue Today’s Senior Loan Officer Survey showed that loan demand remained subdued last quarter. While the survey has not painted an accurate picture of credit conditions lately, it suggests that the recent... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
