UK Economics Focus What is the best way to reduce public sector debt? The easiest way to cut the government debt ratio would be to let economic growth do the work. Yet this could take decades. Cutting it faster would mean running smaller deficits at first, then... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pick up in part-time earnings not enough Part-time earnings have picked up speed in recent months. But they are still rising at a slower rate than a few years ago and would have to pick up much further in order for the Bank of Japan to meet... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update On the link between US economic, equity and credit cycles An increase in Moody’s seasoned Baa-rated US corporate bond yield preceded all seven recessions that have taken place in the US in the past fifty years. What’s more, in six of those cases, the... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will the Riksbank put its money where its mouth is? Sweden’s Riksbank is likely to have to follow through on its pledge to intervene in the foreign exchange market. But the strength of the domestic economy and the likelihood of more ECB QE means that... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Should we be alarmed by the rise in US corporate credit spreads? 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) Household borrowing figures for November provided further evidence that households continue to drive the UK recovery. However, in combination with household data published in December’s Q3 National... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Dec.) & Money and Credit (Nov.) While December’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey offers a glimmer of hope that the sector’s recession has drawn to a close, the improvement in the fourth quarter as a whole looks like it is built on... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) There was no festive cheer for the Chancellor in November’s public finances figures. Indeed, it now looks almost impossible for Mr. Osborne to meet the OBR’s public borrowing forecast for the fiscal... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing and credit bubbles: the next shoe to drop? Investors in Brazil are understandably focussed on the economic implications of the recent change in Finance Minister and the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff. But we think the way... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) An improvement in nominal GDP growth recently has prevented the ratio of private debt to output from rising, despite a rapid expansion in bank lending. This trend should continue for a while. 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we worry about money flooding out of Asia? A large amount of capital has flowed into Asia in recent years but the risks posed by these inflows are generally exaggerated. Asian central banks have mopped up net inflows and recycled them into... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hints at move to tracking basket The People’s Bank appears to be shifting its management of the renminbi to tracking a currency basket rather than the dollar. While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Longer-dated Bund yields to rise as ECB diversifies purchases After failing to live up to its own hype last week, we would not be surprised if the ECB is forced to increase its monthly asset purchases after all next year. But even if it does, we think that the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
