Global Economics Update Monetary conditions to remain loose in 2016 The broad money supply is growing steadily and the growth of credit to nonfinancial companies has been recovering in recent months. With bond yields still very low and several central banks likely to... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Household borrowing figures for October demonstrated that households continue to drive the UK recovery. While the figures probably don’t have any implications for the interest rate outlook, they may... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Definitely not the end of austerity The Chancellor’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed him to do everything he wanted in last week’s Spending Review and Autumn Statement – and more. Indeed, it is... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Further FPC action would not undermine recovery We could finally see some policy action from the Bank of England next week – but not in the form of a tightening in monetary policy. The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) may flex its muscle by using... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New bankruptcy code would be a big step forward Plans to overhaul India’s archaic bankruptcy laws, due to be discussed in the upcoming winter session of parliament, would be a major step towards creating a more favourable business climate and... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Euro-zone monetary data showed some signs of improvement in October, but continue to point to low inflation and slow growth, strengthening the case for the ECB to increase its stimulus next week. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek outlook improves but crisis still not over Greece has cleared another hurdle with the disbursement of its latest bailout tranche and funds to recapitalise its banks. But until its debt burden is properly addressed, its crisis is not over. 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement & Spending Review 2015 Preview Although the Chancellor will use his Autumn Statement on 25th November to soften the blow forhouseholds facing cuts in their tax credits, the big picture will still be that the economy faces a... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finance figures suggest that borrowing has not fallen as quickly as the OBR predicted, leaving the Chancellor with less room for manoeuvre in his Autumn Statement on 25th November. 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Underlying household spending remains strong The underlying picture for household spending remains positive. Real household spending in Q3 looks likely to have grown by around 0.8% q/q, the rate seen in Q1 and Q2. And while retail sales volumes... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but the increase in domestic credit is dwarfed by the surge in foreign claims, with their yen-value inflated by the weaker exchange rate. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus What next for India’s consumers? India’s consumer market is often the subject of frenzied interest among investors and commentators but, in recent years, growth has been held back by both cyclical and structural headwinds. In this... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM debt problem revisited The past few weeks have seen increased awareness of potential debt problems brewing in the emerging world. In general, debt burdens are lower and more manageable in most EMs than in the past. But... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
