UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) In net terms, bank lending to commercial property remained firmly in negative territory in August. In turn, that reflected continued caution on the part of lenders to finance new development. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserve depletion has further to run The fact that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its foreign exchange reserves should come as little surprise given that the Kingdom is running a current account deficit and also facing sizeable capital... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone peripheral government bonds remain vulnerable The rise in sovereign credit spreads in the euro-zone since the spring has partly reflected concerns about the implications of the slowdown in China and US monetary policy, rather than just specific... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How does Italian private debt compare to public debt Italy’s public debt load is worryingly high, but private sector debt is much less of a concern. This provides some grounds for optimism that a recovery in the private sector which increases the size... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) August’s public borrowing figures brought the recent run of good news on the public finances to an abrupt end. That said, hopefully this will just be a temporary blip, as tax receipts should be... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Low interest rates and debt-to-income ratios suggest that Japan’s households and firms can continue to borrow as strongly as they have in recent months. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug) Today’s data for August confirm that policy easing has led to a rebound in credit growth. This turnaround will raise concerns among many that efforts to rein in debt have been shelved, but it is a... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
