UK Economics Weekly Banking sector fears overdone One of the main areas of concern in markets in recent weeks has been the banking sector, both in the UK and overseas. However, we do not think that this pessimism about the UK’s banking sector is... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower interest rates to save Osborne’s bacon again While most developments since November’s Autumn Statement bode poorly for the public finances, lower interest rates should provide an offset. However, the Chancellor would be unwise to spend this... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growth still strong in the US, and rebounding in China Broad money growth has slowed somewhat in the four major advanced economies in recent months. However, bank lending to the private sector, which is a better guide to economic prospects, has generally... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What measures are needed to revive the banking sector? Comments last week from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that local banks are in need of "deep surgery" has refocused attention on the ailing sector. Large-scale capital injections, increased private... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil slump unlikely to cause major problems in Gulf banking sectors The slump in oil prices has raised fears that banks in the Gulf could come under strain, as governments withdraw deposits, foreign exchange reserves are depleted and assets begin to sour. But, while... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s data point to a sharp acceleration in credit growth going into 2016. This is consistent with our view that growth is more likely to pick up than slow over the coming quarters. 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) While domestic lending continues to expand at a steady pace, the bigger story is the continued expansion in cross-border lending. Even though banks have curtailed their exposure to China, overall... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Risks of major renminbi devaluation are exaggerated The lack of clarity in China’s data and clumsy communication of policy changes have allowed many scare stories to proliferate. Nonetheless, there is little justification for fears that the renminbi is... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC still far from exhausting reserves The idea that the People’s Bank is running out of FX reserves doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. But the fact that many take it seriously is a sign of how far sentiment has swung against China. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Credit risks rising but crisis not imminent A renewed acceleration in credit growth has brought concerns about a Chinese debt crisis back to the fore. Investors are right to be worried: dealing with the unsustainable build-up of debt is one of... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the monetary data pointing to global downturn? While some recent survey evidence has hinted that loan growth in the US may be about to slow, money and credit data in the four major advanced economies as a whole so far provide little support for... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank troubles intensify downside risks to growth The renewed concerns over the health of the euro-zone’s banks present an awkward policy dilemma for the European Central Bank and further raise the downside risks to the currency union’s economy. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Government struggling to resist austerity The European Commission made only minor concessions to the Portuguese Government over its 2016 Budget and the pace of fiscal consolidation will still be faster this year than last. This suggests that... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will fiscal policy derail the recovery? Contrary to what many newspaper headlines claimed after the Autumn Statement towards the end of last year, we have not reached the end of austerity. Not in the slightest. However, we think that the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt offer encouraging, but more work still to do Argentina’s debt proposal to US holdout creditors is an encouraging development, but there are still a number of hurdles to overcome in order for the government to return to global capital markets. 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
