Asia Economics Focus Bubbles, basket cases and rising stars The economic outlook for Emerging Asia over the next few years varies considerably from one country to the next. Years of loose monetary policy in the region’s wealthy economies have led to the... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Reforms will help Italian banks crawl back to health Recent reforms will help Italy’s fragile banking system. But a legacy of bad debts and the earlier tightening of lending standards will weigh on the country’s recovery for a while yet. 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much of a boost would a Grexit provide to US Treasuries? The Greek authorities’ decision to call a referendum on the proposals of the country’s creditors triggered a decline of around 20bp in the yield of 10-year Treasuries, which has since been only partly... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Grexit, the euro-crisis and the risks for EMs Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets remain this calm if and when Grexit occurs? Although some of the initial reaction in the markets to the decision by the Greek authorities to hold a referendum has been unwound, there is plenty of scope for renewed volatility in the event of a... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s fairly weak household borrowing figures provided further reassurance that therecovery in household spending is not founded upon an unsustainable pick-up incredit growth and is another reason to... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s plans to inject more capital into local banks are a positive step, but they are too limited to revive the ailing sector. Larger capital injections are needed to strengthen banks’... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Markets right to expect slow monetary tightening The prevailing view in the markets that the MPC can raise interest rates extremely gradually over the coming years seems right to us. Granted, wage growth has begun to pick up and the Fed looks set to... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A primer on how Saudi Arabia uses its FX reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia is using its foreign exchange reservesto finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Scrapping the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t boost bank lending A new proposal to do away with the loan-to-deposit ratio won’t relax the primary constraints on bank lending. It should, however, mean that a greater share of lending is directed towards smaller and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
