Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone monetary data point to a continued economic recovery, although they suggest that growth will not gather much more pace. 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to slow as temporary boosts fade The broader European economy has continued to weather the Greek crisis well, helped by lower oil prices and, in the euro-zone itself, the decline in the euro exchange rate. But these positive forces... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Credit slowdown to weigh on Asian growth After a poor start to 2015, we expect growth in Emerging Asia to pick up in the second half of the year as the benefits of lower oil prices and loose monetary policy filter through to the domestic... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The Credit Conditions Survey reported an uptick in secured residential credit availability in the second quarter, but that the availability of commercial lending was more-or-less unchanged. For the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would OMTs contain post-Grexit contagion? If a Greek exit from the euro-zone resulted in substantial market turmoil, the ECB would probably respond by unleashing its fabled OMTs. This is a potentially powerful tool to limit contagion. But... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity sell-off is a Chinese, not EM, phenomenon Despite a rebound in recent days, Chinese equities have slumped since the middle June. Still, the Shanghai Composite is some 90% higher than a year ago, and there is little sign that the sell-off has... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
