Global Economics Update Rebound in bond yields unlikely to undermine global growth We can all be caught up in the mood of the moment, but talk of a “rout” in bond markets is, at best, premature. Yields are still remarkably low by past standards. While they may rise further, notably... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) China’s credit growth slowed further in April. But with policy now easing, credit growth should stabilise in the months ahead, helping to relieve some of the downward pressure on the economy. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Budget Preview: Disappointing as well as “dull” While Tuesday’s Federal Budget may well live up to the “dull” label slapped on it by the Prime Minister, the failure to provide any extra support to the economy will be disappointing. This would place... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) & Money and Credit (Mar.) The combination of the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing but improvement in the lending figures highlighted that the economic recovery has become increasingly dependent on... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions remain highly accommodative as the world’s major central banks have kept policy rates close to zero and some have continued with large scale asset purchases. Conditions in... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Ireland’s economic recovery a statistical illusion? The strength of Ireland’s recovery has been overstated due to a number of statistical distortions to GDP. But the economy does still seem to be on the mend. And the conditions are in place for Ireland... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone monetary data suggest that economic growth might pick up in the coming months. But the continued wrangling over Greece’s fiscal situation presents a significant risk to the country’s... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russia’s economy slumps, growth weakens in Turkey The region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have continued to struggle over the past month. Russia’s economy appears to have contracted sharply by around 3% y/y in Q1. Meanwhile, we... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances & Retail Sales (Mar.) The last public finances figures before the general election brought some good news for the incumbent coalition. However, weak retail sales figures for March increase the chances that next Tuesday’s... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria’s bank troubles will have euro-zone repercussions The ongoing uncertainty and legal suits over the wind-down of a small Austrian provincial bank might seem like the least of the euro-zone’s current concerns. But the wind-down of Hypo Alpe Adria’s bad... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Senior Loan Officer Survey (Q1) The BoJ’s Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a further slowdown in loan demand last quarter. But the survey has not been a reliable guide to the pace of credit growth recently. While we can’t rule... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) With broad money growth expanding at close to 6% over the past year and bank loans growing at an even faster 8%, there is little evidence of a sustained slowdown in real economic growth or price... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will QE spur a revival in investment? The risks of a Greek default and possible euro-zone exit rose further last week as its creditors made clear that a bailout disbursement was unlikely in the near term. Despite this, ECB President Mario... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
