Europe Economics Update Greek crisis may finally be coming to a head The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Don’t underestimate the economy’s hidden slack Economists and policymakers are significantly overestimating the permanent damage inflicted to the economy from the financial crisis and recession. We still think that the economy has the potential to... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Mar.) & FX reserves (Q1 Credit issuance was unusually weak in March but, with the late Chinese New Year break still casting a shadow, we wouldn’t read too much into this. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The Bank of Japan now owns more Japanese government bonds than private pension funds and insurance companies combined. However, with the government pension fund continuing to shed bonds, and usage of... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is loose monetary policy inflating bubbles in Germany? With the ECB’s quantitative easing programme putting upward pressure on German asset prices in particular, some point to a risk of bubbles developing there. We think the greater risk is that such... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wealth effects in euro-zone and Japan will be small Quantitative easing in the euro-zone and Japan has provided a big boost to equity markets which in turn should bolster household wealth. But barring a major recovery in the housing market, the impact... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Dollar parity wouldn't be a big problem for New Zealand While a strengthening of the New Zealand dollar to parity against its Australian counterpart would be an important milestone, it would have little adverse economic impact. Indeed, the recent weakening... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on EM dollar debts The recent strength of the dollar has thrust EM dollar debts into the spotlight, but data on the subject tend to be misunderstood. In this Update, we answer three questions that we have been asked by... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) The Credit Conditions Survey painted a weak picture of the residential mortgage market, but confirmed that the commercial lending market is improving. While the supply of residential mortgages is... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: IMF deal a positive, but difficult transition ahead The finalisation of Ghana’s three-year, US$918mn loan from the IMF is a very positive development, but we expect slow growth in 2015 and 2016 as the country’s economic unbalances unwind. That said... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation is dead, but should rise again before long For a country that has spent most of its recent history enduring high inflation, the recent release of figures showing that CPI inflation in the UK has now fallen to zero was a watershed moment. What... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still have plenty of ammunition Growth looks likely to have slowed sharply in Q1, in spite of recent cuts to the required reserve ratio and benchmark interest rates. This has raised concerns that policymakers are now struggling to... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will Russia’s sovereign credit spread keep falling? Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
