India Economics Update What can the RBI do to get banks to lower interest rates? Having cut the repo rate by 125bp this year, the RBI has shifted its focus to ensuring that banks pass on these rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high levels of bad debt mean that the banking... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Does the increase in credit spreads presage an economic slowdown? 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the Greek crisis finally over? This Focus takes a detailed look at the outlook for Greece after the implementation of its third bailout and concludes that the country’s six-year crisis is far from over. Indeed, a Grexit is still... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary indicators consistent with global recovery Many have argued that China’s attempts to prevent its currency from weakening conflict with its efforts to keep domestic monetary conditions loose. But China’s monetary indicators still point to a... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2015 The latest surveys of banks, companies and households in China show a marked deterioration in sentiment about the economy although measures of business profits and orders and of the labour market have... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of our M3 money measure accelerated to a five-month high of 5.6% in August, from 5.2%. The growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are even higher. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Dollar bond credit spreads unlikely to balloon We do not expect the stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index to rise much further. But with US Treasury yields likely to increase substantially in the months ahead, we think the overall... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) Growth in household borrowing strengthened in August. Even so, there is little to suggest that brisk consumer spending has been founded on an unsustainable increase in credit. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) In net terms, bank lending to commercial property remained firmly in negative territory in August. In turn, that reflected continued caution on the part of lenders to finance new development. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserve depletion has further to run The fact that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its foreign exchange reserves should come as little surprise given that the Kingdom is running a current account deficit and also facing sizeable capital... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone peripheral government bonds remain vulnerable The rise in sovereign credit spreads in the euro-zone since the spring has partly reflected concerns about the implications of the slowdown in China and US monetary policy, rather than just specific... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
