India Economics Update Upbeat outlook for remittances The prospects of “Grexit” and interest rate hikes in the US have cast a spotlight on the potential for shifts in capital flows to destabilise emerging markets such as India. One factor that often gets... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun 15) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate slowed slightly to 5.0% y/y in June, reflecting the ongoing impact from the Fed's decision to taper its asset purchases last year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) Headline credit growth slowed again last month, but the data are nonetheless consistent with a stepped up pace of policy support. Meanwhile, the fall in the value of foreign exchange reserves hints at... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The Credit Conditions Survey reported an uptick in secured residential credit availability in the second quarter, but that the availability of commercial lending was more-or-less unchanged. For the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would OMTs contain post-Grexit contagion? If a Greek exit from the euro-zone resulted in substantial market turmoil, the ECB would probably respond by unleashing its fabled OMTs. This is a potentially powerful tool to limit contagion. But... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity sell-off is a Chinese, not EM, phenomenon Despite a rebound in recent days, Chinese equities have slumped since the middle June. Still, the Shanghai Composite is some 90% higher than a year ago, and there is little sign that the sell-off has... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Credit growth remains strong by past standards, and there are some signs that households’ appetite for borrowing has strengthened. We therefore think that household and corporate debt will continue to... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does Plan B for Greece look like? EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s claim that Greece’s creditors now have a “detailed Grexit scenario” may be a bluff to strengthen their bargaining position. But it is not hard to imagine what the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Eqyptian pound has further to fall The Central Bank of Egypt has loosened its grip onthe pound over the past week and we think the currency probably needs to fall by at least another 5% in order to restore external competiveness... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Oxi vote pushes Grexit probability further above 50% While yesterday’s resounding Oxi (No) vote in the Greek referendum does not guarantee a Greek exit from the euro-zone, it has surely raised the probability of such an event further above 50%. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery in real wages looks sustainable The latest labour market data provided further evidence that the recovery in wages now has momentum. Indeed, the headline (three-month average of the annual) growth rate in average weekly earnings... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
