China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s economy likely to continue to disappoint Today’s Italian GDP data were disappointing and we expect the economy to continue to grow at a fairly slow pace. As a result, the government debt-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to fall over the coming years... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Just how worried should we be about Spain? Political developments in Spain could not only dampen the country’s previously strong economic recovery but also threaten to re-ignite the euro-zone’s debt crisis. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected October lending data are likely to add to doubts over the effectiveness of policy support. But overall credit growth is nonetheless continuing to accelerate, which is positive... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Global central banks continue to add gold to their reserves Global central banks increased their gold reserves in September, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to continue to be one of several factors... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to make of the privatisation of the Post Bank? The government took the first step towards the privatisation of the Post Bank by selling a 11% stake on Wednesday. Private ownership will force the Bank to shift its investment portfolio from low... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Boom in business lending may be fading The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that growth in business investment in equipment will remain muted over the remainder of this year. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stress tests offer little hope of Greek lending revival ECB stress tests have offered some comfort about Greek banks’ solvency, but they are not out of the woods. And with a lack of access to cheap funding and depressed deposits seriously restricting banks... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downgrade puts poor fiscal position in the spotlight The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday night is hardly surprising in light of the deterioration in the fiscal position this year and lack of a... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit slowdown has further to run Credit growth has continued to weaken in most of the countries which we have previously highlighted as being most at risk of a crisis. The two exceptions are China and Vietnam. Although an... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) Growth in household borrowing strengthened in September, supporting the ongoing recovery. And although mortgage approvals fell back, we believe this is a temporary blip with fundamentals still... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money aggregates growing steadily Monetary conditions remain highly accommodative in most advanced economies, notwithstanding the rise in corporate bond yields since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, broad monetary aggregates are... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB really cut rates even further? While we have argued for some time that the ECB will expand its asset purchases in December, we now expect it to cut its deposit rate further into negative territory too. This seems unlikely to have... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) September’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued slow growth, which is likely strengthen the conviction of policymakers at the ECB that more stimulus is needed. 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Kneejerk reaction to rising mortgage rates unlikely The tightening in monetary conditions triggered by the recent rises in mortgage rates by the major banks and the strengthening in the dollar is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
