UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Nov.) The latest consumer prices figures confirmed that the UK’s brief flirt with deflation came to an end in November. But price pressures look set to remain subdued for a long while yet. Accordingly, the... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank holds but will have to do more in 2016 The ECB’s timidity and strong domestic demand has allowed Sweden’s Riksbank to leave monetary policy unchanged today. But with headline inflation in Sweden still close to zero and policy likely to be... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Should we worry about money flooding out of Asia? A large amount of capital has flowed into Asia in recent years but the risks posed by these inflows are generally exaggerated. Asian central banks have mopped up net inflows and recycled them into... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC hints at move to tracking basket The People’s Bank appears to be shifting its management of the renminbi to tracking a currency basket rather than the dollar. While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Longer-dated Bund yields to rise as ECB diversifies purchases After failing to live up to its own hype last week, we would not be surprised if the ECB is forced to increase its monthly asset purchases after all next year. But even if it does, we think that the... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Today’s data remain consistent with our view that policy easing is helping to buoy credit growth. 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Finance minister’s sacking will spook investors The surprise removal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is a very worrying development. Mr. Nene was a rare advocate of fiscal discipline, and his sacking adds to a string of increasingly autocratic... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have the Conservatives turned into Labour? The Autumn Statement took the Conservatives’ planned path for departmental spending another stepcloser to Labour’s manifesto plans. Admittedly, the overall fiscal consolidation this parliament is set... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Easing in credit conditions edges up housing demand The lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. The months’ supply of existing homes for sale has now been below five since May. That is both holding back home sales, and... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Fiscal deposit auctions could provide stimulus shot A report today suggesting that all local governments may soon be allowed to auction off their fiscal deposits deserves more attention than it has received. Such a move would have important... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Higher debt interest payments could scupper Osborne’s plans Although the Chancellor is probably still running high from last week’s surprise windfall from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) at the Autumn Statement, he should be wary. There are various... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC getting closer to acting, but will tread carefully We got close to finally seeing some action from the Bank of England today. But in the event, the latest Financial Stability Report only prepped the ground for action from the Financial Policy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
