Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Low interest rates and debt-to-income ratios suggest that Japan’s households and firms can continue to borrow as strongly as they have in recent months. 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug) Today’s data for August confirm that policy easing has led to a rebound in credit growth. This turnaround will raise concerns among many that efforts to rein in debt have been shelved, but it is a... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of EM capital controls is overdone Despite concerns in some quarters, EM policymakers are unlikely to introduce capital controls. Many EMs are dependent on capital inflows – which capital controls would discourage – and many are likely... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil downgraded, fiscal mess deepens There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows not as large as doom mongers feared Capital outflows from China have picked up since last month’s botched currency reforms but by less than many had feared. Our view, in any case, is that outflows don’t pose as big a threat to China’s... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central banks really running out of ammunition? The recent panic in global markets has been reflected in a wave of commentary to the effect that monetary policy has lost its power. We disagree. Central banks’ track record on inflation in advanced... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy credit growth hits a six-year high The latest monetary data suggest that the pace of growth in the major advanced economies remains solid. Global monetary conditions are likely to remain very loose over the coming years, which in turn... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Aug.) & Money and Credit (Jul.) August’s Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing showed that the strong pound is crimping exporters and so suggests that the major support net trade provided to GDP growth in Q2 will be a blip. But there... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring deal only a small step forward Following months of difficult negotiations Ukraine has finally managed to agree on a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the deal itself is too small to make much of a dent in Ukraine’s... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monthly (Jul.) The growth rate of our broad M3 monetary aggregate rebounded to a robust 5.2% y/y in July, suggesting that there is little risk of a sustained deflation or a marked slowdown in real economic growth... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update China and the SDR: fuss about nothing Reports that the IMF has decided not to add the renminbi to the SDR basket until September 2016 at the earliest miss two more important points. First, China’s currency may not be added to the basket... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bailout approved, but implementation doubtful The German Parliament’s approval of the third Greek bailout should prompt payments allowing Greece to narrowly avoid default yet again. But Grexit risks have not disappeared and are likely to flare up... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold price to be supported by central banks’ buying In the last month, China has added a further 19 tonnes to its official holdings of gold. This supports our view that China’s gold accumulation will continue and that official purchases will be one of... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Has bank lending turned a corner? The sharp slowdown in bank lending to the private sector over the past four years appears to have bottomed out, as cuts to policy rates gradually feed through to commercial banks’ lending rates. But... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
