UK Economics Update The race for PM and its implications for the economy Whichever way events unfold over the next few days, it seems clear the next Prime Minister (Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt) will have to work hard to restore credibility in the eyes of the markets by... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Prime Minister Liz Truss falls, political risk premium remains We do not yet know which of the three PM hopefuls (Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt who have attracted early backing from Conservative MPs) will replace Liz Truss. Whoever is PM, we think a... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s protests three years on, COP drop This week marked the third anniversary of a large wave of protests in Chile which set in motion a shift towards looser fiscal policy, have left the political landscape difficult to navigate and caused... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Sep.) The weakness in retail sales and overshoot of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) March public borrowing forecast won’t make the next Prime Minister’s task any easier in navigating the... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Event South Africa Drop-In: Unpacking the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 1666792800 Our Emerging Markets team gave our clients their immediate reaction to the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 26th October. The team addressed key issues, including:
UK Economics Focus Medium-Term Fiscal Plan October 2022 – Preview As the new Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, unveils whether, when and how he will put public debt on a sustainable path in his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on Monday 31st October, the big question will be whether... 20th October 2022 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Gilt yields will perform a full Truss-style U-turn While today’s announcements by new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the Gilt market, we don’t expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall too much further in the near term. 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor Statement (17th Oct.) The Chancellor didn’t just do a further U-turn on the Truss/Kwarteng policies in his statement today, he essentially wiped them out in an attempt to reassure the financial markets that the government... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal crisis to market crisis to political crisis The sacking of the Chancellor and the U-turn on corporation tax might not be enough for the government to regain the full confidence of the financial markets. For that to happen, more may need to be... 14th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s public finances, ups and downs of SA industry The shelf life of Nigeria’s recently presented budget plans is likely to be short with elections due in early-2023 and no guarantee about policy continuity. Any new administration will not only have... 14th October 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Chancellor sacked, further mini-budget U-turns (14th Oct.) 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
