Europe Economics Update France adds a pinch of prudence to its fiscal support The UK government has not been alone in announcing new fiscal measures in recent days. The French government’s plan to stabilise the budget deficit at 5% of GDP next year looks optimistic, given its... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a different policy mix will revive sterling soon Although a shift in the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy mix could conceivably boost sterling in due course, we suspect that the currency won’t continue to recover in the near term from its record low... 27th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Policymakers on alert as EM currencies tumble The ramping up of the US Fed’s hawkish rhetoric has turbocharged the dollar’s appreciation against EM currencies, with most falling by 2-6% against the greenback since the start of the month... 27th September 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update What’s needed to put public debt on a sustainable footing? Long-term fiscal sustainability is governed by what happens to a combination of economic growth, government borrowing costs and the primary budget balance. Since we’re sceptical that the tax cuts... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Policy Response to Plunging Pound (26th Sep.) The further fall in the pound in early trading means that we’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative. There are a couple of ways it could... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s economic woes, perpetual power cuts in SA Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in... 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Kwarteng causes carnage The surge in gilt yields and the fall in the pound after the Chancellor announced his hefty tax cuts suggests that the markets have concluded the policies will lead to higher interest rates and more... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor gambles everything on growth The Chancellor claimed that this was a plan for growth. But unless the Chancellor’s gamble pays off and the government’s fiscal policy boosts GDP growth by 0.5-1.0ppts per annum, the risk is that once... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Brazil and Colombia The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand... 22nd September 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor set to gamble on growth A key prong to the new PM’s economic policy is to increase the size of the economic pie, rather than redistributing it, seemingly funded by higher public borrowing. If the new government’s gamble on... 21st September 2022 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI’s CBDC may struggle for relevance The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22... 21st September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The public finances figures brought some cheer for the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, ahead of his fiscal statement on Friday. That said, the government’s huge fiscal expansion and the weakening... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA recapitalisation not off the table yet Despite incurring a record loss last year and now having to operate with negative equity, the RBA has not requested a recapitalisation from the government. But given that it did receive a capital... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
