India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Surging inflation won’t last Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October, the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the... 21st November 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Monetary tightening now, fiscal tightening later With the planned fiscal squeeze coming after 2024/25, the Autumn Statement was not just good politics, but good economics too. Even so, the UK's fiscal consolidation stands out in comparison to the... 18th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil spending cap, Lula at COP27, consumer slump? While Brazil’s president-elect Lula reaffirmed his pledge to crack down on illegal deforestation in the Amazon at the COP27 conference this week, his comments on fiscal policy and his transition team... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Fiscal Statement – Restoring credibility In his Autumn Statement, the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, appears to have pulled off the tricky task of reassuring the financial markets of the government’s fiscal discipline while also managing not to... 17th November 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Statement 2022 Checklist We are resending this checklist so clients can have it to hand ahead of today’s Autumn Statement at 11.30am GMT. This checklist helps clients keep track of the key economic and public finances... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s bad loans, inflation outlook brightening Brazil’s president-elect Lula sent local financial markets into a tailspin late this week after he stressed the need for higher spending, reinforcing our concerns that the country’s public debt... 11th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Manufacturing boost to SA, Kenya’s public finances The surprising strength of South Africa’s manufacturing data for September has lengthened the odds that the economy was in a technical recession over Q2 and Q3. And in Kenya, bond markets have rallied... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal tightening may come later rather than sooner The big fiscal tightening set to be unveiled by the Chancellor at the Autumn Statement next Thursday is coming just as the recession begins. The clear risk is that the fiscal consolidation deepens the... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Construction cooling, fiscal rules and pivots We think euro-zone financial markets are getting ahead of themselves if they are sensing an imminent “pivot” by the ECB following the lower-than-expected US CPI number released yesterday. Indeed, we... 11th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a fiscal health check The dramatic improvement in EM public finances since the height of the pandemic is starting to run out of steam. And we think that fiscal dynamics are likely to get worse next year in parts of Central... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Fiscal policy tightening just as the recession begins While the risk premium that pushed gilt yields up and the pound down after the mini-budget has mostly been reversed under the stewardship of Sunak and Hunt, the fear that the markets will baulk at any... 10th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt-UAE wind farm, Dubai property, Egypt downgrade Egypt’s announcement at COP27 of plans to build one of the largest onshore wind farms is a positive move to increase renewables usage that will improve energy security and support the balance of... 10th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: How far will Hunt’s Autumn Statement go to appease the markets? 1668700800 Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Jonas Goltermann, a senior economist from our Global Markets team, held a client briefing shortly after the Chancellor’s 17th November statement, to discuss his fi
