Europe Chart Pack ECB to keep hiking as stagflation intensifies The latest activity indicators show that the economy contracted in October, and the forward-looking measures of new orders and expectations suggest that the downturn will get worse. We have pencilled... 8th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Tougher times may lie ahead for Brazil’s markets Brazil’s financial markets have been some of the world’s best performers lately, supported in part by the prospect of centrist policymaking by incoming president Lula. With the presidential election... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s win, Chile’s pensions Financial markets responded positively to Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. But we’re still waiting for more concrete details of whether Lula’s pledges to raise spending can be met while also... 4th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s dovish tilt looking premature The modest fiscal loosening unveiled in the Fall Economic Statement this week is unlikely to move the needle much for monetary policy, but the surge in employment in October and the acceleration in... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Farewell fiscal loosening The reports that Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, in his Autumn Statement on 17th November will unveil a fiscal tightening of up to £50bn suggests that fiscal policy will soon become a major drag on the... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS: last of the good news on SA’s public finances? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday provided further good news on the state of the public finances, but pressure for public sector wage increases is just one of a number of... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Infrastructure push only a stopgap solution A jump in infrastructure investment can take much of the credit for the better-than-expected Q3 GDP figures. We think fiscal stimulus will result in a further ramp-up in spending next year. But China... 28th October 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Public support will push inflation below 2% again The Tokyo CPI’s strength in October has prompted us to lift our forecast for the peak in underlying inflation from 2.5% to 3.0%. However, government support measures announced today mean that headline... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Recession looms as tightening bites 1667919600 Our Global Economics team held a 20-minute online briefing on the outlook for the global economy and policy on Tuesday, 8th November.
Event EM Drop-In: How will EM economies and markets fare in the global downturn? 1667487600 Economists from our Emerging Markets and Markets teams discussed the outlook for EM financial markets in this regular dive into the big stories in EMs.
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget repair will worsen economic slowdown The Treasurer resisted the temptation to spend the tax windfall from high commodity prices in today’s Budget. But with high inflation lifting payments by at least as much as receipts, the government... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: moderate finance minister won’t save BTPs Italy’s new government may initially steer clear of major fiscal loosening, but it will have to provide some more support to cushion the blow from the energy crisis. Given Italy’s fiscal... 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
