Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ decision to keep a lid on Gulf economies’ growth The decision by OPEC+ to keep oil production lower over the rest of this year means that oil sectors in the Gulf will grow more slowly than we had previously anticipated and we have revised down our... 3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the... 31st May 2024 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal tailwinds to return, export rush lifts freight rates Today’s PMIs suggest that China’s rebound is faltering. That appears to reflect a drying up of fiscal support after the initial surge at the beginning of the year. There’s more in the pipeline though... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is there a growth dividend from a large government majority? With both Labour and the Conservatives this week ruling out increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, it remains difficult to see how cuts to public services can be avoided after the... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ set for crunch talks and Egypt’s fiscal reforms This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting could be a stick or twist moment with markets increasingly believing the group will roll over its quotas and voluntary cuts again. If quotas are extended, that risks... 30th May 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is expanding at a decent pace, with the manufacturing sector a key source of... 30th May 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Sheinbaum presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico’s election on Sunday is likely to see a continuation of Amlo’s generous social policies – which will also make Banxico’s fight against inflation harder. The... 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May 2024) Low oil output in the Gulf has constrained economic growth so far this year and the upcoming OPEC+ meeting will prove pivotal to the outlook over the rest of this year. Elsewhere in Middle East and... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US pact nears, MENA bond issuances, Iran election Reports that the US and Saudi Arabia are nearing to a grand deal on security and the Kingdom’s civilian nuclear program would, if confirmed, swing the Kingdom back towards the US’s sphere of influence... 23rd May 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s election: into the unknown? South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in... 23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi GDP growth will hinge on OPEC+ decision After exiting recession in Q1, Saudi Arabia’s economy should continue to expand over the rest of this year on the back of strong private non-oil growth and higher oil output. But next month’s OPEC... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Apr. 2024) April’s public finances figures got the new 2024/25 fiscal year off to a shaky start and cast further doubt on the Chancellor’s ability to unveil big tax cuts at another pre-election fiscal event... 22nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India has been the star performer among major EMs over the past several quarters and the latest data... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update An early look at Germany’s next general election The next German federal election will be crucial in determining how Germany will respond to its structural economic challenges. This Update answers some key questions on what to expect from the... 20th May 2024 · 7 mins read
