India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Africa Economics Update Making sense of debt developments in Ghana As the authorities in Ghana take further steps towards a debt restructuring, in this Update we take stock of the latest developments and their economic implications. 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula’s fiscal plans intensify Brazil’s public debt risks President-elect Lula’s plans to increase spending could raise Brazil’s public debt ratio by an additional 10% of GDP by the end of his presidential term in 2026. And while it seems likely that these... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s fiscal mess, data & decisions wrap Official statements by the authorities in Ghana signalled commitment to restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, and left little doubt that this will include a sovereign debt restructuring. Meanwhile... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico debate, Lula tacks back, Argentina’s struggles The further rise in core inflation in the first half of November suggests that the debate at Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) over when to end the tightening cycle is set to heat up. The risks are... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE losses add pressure on the public finances The Treasury has started to make payments to the Bank of England’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) to cover the losses it has racked up because of the Bank of England’s gilt purchases. While this won’t... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction the next shoe to drop The big surprise so far this year has been the resilience of housing starts which, despite falling from their 10-month high of 300,000 annualised in September, remained at a relatively strong 267,000... 24th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy: budget hurdle cleared, but debt risks remain Italy’s draft 2023 budget confirms that, for now, the new right-wing government is committed to fiscal responsibility. As a result, the risk of turbulence in BTP markets has fallen, but it remains... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic resilience won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of consumer spending is keeping hopes of a soft landing alive. Although GDP growth looks to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and most leading indicators of recession are flashing red... 22nd November 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) October’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is no longer coming in below last year’s monthly totals. And the combination of the government’s energy price support and pressures... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Higher rates feeding through to real economy The RBI has hiked interest rates by 190bps since May and, while that is relatively benign compared to the moves seen in many other EMs, this tightening is now feeding through to the economy. Purchases... 21st November 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey’s election: a fork in the road for the economy Voters in Turkey head to the polls in 2023 and if the ruling People’s Alliance and President Erdogan cling on to power, the authorities are likely to double down on their “new economic model”, raising... 21st November 2022 · 40 mins read
