China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy weathering political risks The euro-zone economy still seems to be weathering the effects of political upsets and uncertainty at home and abroad well. The PMI and EC survey indicators rose in November, consistent with an... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus coming, but trade a wildcard Donald Trump’s unexpected election victory means that we are likely to see a major fiscal stimulus enacted in the first half of next year. As a result, we now expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.7%... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What now for Italy? Italy has taken the first step along a path that could lead it out of the euro-zone. There are still many obstacles to an Italian exit. But as long as the country’s future is uncertain, bond yields... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Pension reform to improve health of public finances A proposed reform to better link pension payments with movements in wages should improve the viability of Japan’s public finances. For current workers though, the reform may force them to delay... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth, to just 1.2% y/y in Q3 from 2.0% y/y in Q2, was due in part to the effects of a truck drivers’ strike. With the dispute having now ended, Q3 may prove to be... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Fiscal watchdog joins debate on Brexit impact This week brought the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) first assessment of the effect of the Brexit vote on the economy and the public finances. This was more upbeat than had been anticipated... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chancellor “just about manages” to help consumers The net giveaway to consumers in the Autumn Statement was small compared to previouslyannounced takeaways. Accordingly, fiscal policy should still weigh on households’ spending power over the next few... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the OBR too gloomy about Brexit? The Office for Budget Responsibility’s economic forecasts garnered more attention than usual after last week’s Autumn Statement, and have been criticised by some for being too gloomy on Brexit. On the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Strong domestic demand helping to offset weak exports Regional GDP growth held steady at just under 4% last quarter, with buoyant domestic demand again helping to offset weak exports. With subdued global growth set to continue holding back exports, the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Did Mr Hammond squander a golden opportunity? Philip Hammond’s first (and last) Autumn Statement has been generally well received as a compromise between the conflicting needs to repair the UK public finances and provide the economy with more... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
