Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rising wage growth won’t worry the MPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has stated that it is willing to look through a period of exchange-rate driven above-target inflation, one of its conditions is that there are no significant... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Formation of new Icelandic Government opens door for further rate cuts In the land of fire and ice, currency movements in 2016 resembled an erupting volcano rather than a creeping glacier. The appreciating króna put downward pressure on inflation, prompting the Central... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Government remains reluctant to spend The budget for the coming fiscal year foresees broadly neutral rather than expansionary fiscal policy. With supplementary spending for the current fiscal year barely larger than last year’s, the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy entering 2017 with some momentum The world economy is entering 2017 with stronger growth and rising inflation, but prospects for the rest of the year are more mixed. Activity has picked up in unison across the major economies in... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack A strong end to 2016 Revisions from the ONS mean that quarterly GDP growth in Q3 is now estimated to have been 0.6% – the same as in Q2. What’s more, business surveys suggest that this pace was maintained in Q4... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be more aggressive than most expect The accompanying statement to today’s MPC meeting in Romania was less hawkish than we had expected. Nonetheless, with further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and economic slack now exhausted... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16 Saudi Arabia’s recent budget suggested that fiscal consolidation will take a breather this year and, while the “Fiscal Balance Program” points to austerity resuming from 2018, it is likely to be less... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect in 2017 We expect Japan’s economy to grow by 1% next year. Given how low potential growth is, this should be enough to drive a further decline in spare capacity and to add to price pressures. The Bank of... 23rd December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2017 Budget: austerity takes a breather Saudi Arabia’s budget suggests that, following a significant improvement in the public finances over the past couple of years, the fiscal stance will be broadly neutral in 2017. This supports our view... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
